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Guest
on 29 Apr 08 10:01 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | how do you feel when you realised that you could have bought your condo $500K cheaper? |
very angry of course 
so all buyers wise up with your $ 
look out people who tried to paint a rosy picture with hidden agenda  |
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Guest
on 29 Apr 08 10:50 pm
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actually was just talking to a banker today n realised one thing..... in the short term we really dun have to be worried of runaway prices again... due to of course credit issue. For eg, banks in Singapore use to give 90 per cent loan no issue at all but now things have all changed. The only banks I know of giving is only DBS n OCBC ( I think). Banks are very careful of with giving out credits now n even if they are willing to give 90 per cent loan ..... they have a very stringent criteria for one to qualify. I mean very very tight. Just think about it ... do you really think the developers are really cutting their losses over those failed en bloc projects n losing 20 over millions over it? More like they failed to secure themselves the easy credits from investment banks they once used to be able to obtain without much difficulties. 
What that means is simple..... ppl can't get easy credit and coupled with the current stock market n volatility, most buyers will not have that 20 per cent cash plus CPF especially for medium to high end properties.
Still not convinced? Look ard the ad n most sellers are now already willing to low their prices to even 600 plus psf for medium end projects . The best one to ask is your agents .... 
WIth prices not going up in any time soon n massive supply coming up..... buyers really have all the time in the world to hunt for an ideal property. |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 12:55 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.
We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.
Rationale was simple and not rocket science.
#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.
#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.
#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.
#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)
#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.
#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.
#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.
#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.
We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.
Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.
Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.
The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.
The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray. |
Let me say something , I really do not know who is Diva in this forum but I must admit I am very impressed with your analysis on the Singapore property activities. In fact you should have give yourself a nick so that we can identify it is you posting on the forum as I regard your posting to be very very useful in determining for any property purchases in Singapore. This is Phd level ... ha ha good job my fren.  |
replying to own post ar
?
no wonder got PHD (permanent head damage) |
write sooo long, so good english, so damp true,,,,,also uselesssss.... because u are the BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT...... if u are sooooo damp good, got real foresign .... able to predict the singapore property market.......
u would have brough into singapore property in 2005 like me......making hundreds of thousands......."same old phase invest in yourself, not investing into ppl who can write damp good" |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 1:31 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | actually was just talking to a banker today n realised one thing..... in the short term we really dun have to be worried of runaway prices again... due to of course credit issue. For eg, banks in Singapore use to give 90 per cent loan no issue at all but now things have all changed. The only banks I know of giving is only DBS n OCBC ( I think). Banks are very careful of with giving out credits now n even if they are willing to give 90 per cent loan ..... they have a very stringent criteria for one to qualify. I mean very very tight. Just think about it ... do you really think the developers are really cutting their losses over those failed en bloc projects n losing 20 over millions over it? More like they failed to secure themselves the easy credits from investment banks they once used to be able to obtain without much difficulties.
What that means is simple..... ppl can't get easy credit and coupled with the current stock market n volatility, most buyers will not have that 20 per cent cash plus CPF especially for medium to high end properties.
Still not convinced? Look ard the ad n most sellers are now already willing to low their prices to even 600 plus psf for medium end projects . The best one to ask is your agents ....
WIth prices not going up in any time soon n massive supply coming up..... buyers really have all the time in the world to hunt for an ideal property. |
Thanks for the info....is food for thought...Cheers |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 1:39 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.
We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.
Rationale was simple and not rocket science.
#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.
#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.
#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.
#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)
#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.
#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.
#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.
#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.
We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.
Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.
Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.
The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.
The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray. |
Let me say something , I really do not know who is Diva in this forum but I must admit I am very impressed with your analysis on the Singapore property activities. In fact you should have give yourself a nick so that we can identify it is you posting on the forum as I regard your posting to be very very useful in determining for any property purchases in Singapore. This is Phd level ... ha ha good job my fren. |
Understandable some choose to ignore got analysis and foresight...This group is call Phd( Permanent Head Damage) .....by the way two thumbs up. It has benefited a lot of people out there....Cheers |
Really good info and very solid facts...thanks mate |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 6:21 am
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| still can not sell, talk so much still can not sell, wait long long also can not sell, so you forever pay loan long long ha ha ha today radio report bank start chasing for money so will take over your unit wahahaha |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 6:41 am
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As inflation squeezes middle-class Europe, anxiety about the future
More worrisome, a generation of European workers is grappling with a rising sense of injustice as they face the reality that they may be becoming worse, not better, off than their parents. Even holding classic middle-class professions with a university degree has become less of a guarantee against economic hardship. That, in turn, is igniting concerns of an even more uncertain future for their own children.
"We are cycling against the wind," said Robert Rochefort, director general of Credoc, a institute based in Paris that researches living standards and consumption patterns. "We have to pedal faster so we don't slow further. But pedaling faster doesn't mean we will necessarily go faster."
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/29/business/29prices.php
Singaporeans will feel the same way too, if house prices remain high & are not affordable to the average Joe.
Be careful of what you wish. The Middle class do not have $2000+ psf apartments.
Price or asset appreciation is not necessarily a good thing,
except for the already-have-it. |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 8:03 am
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April 21, 2008
World may face deepest recession in 30 years
GIC's deputy chairman Tony Tan warns of its biggest challenge yet
By Bryan Lee, Economics Correspondent
THE world could be facing its worst recession in three decades but governments can lessen the effects of the downturn if they act decisively within the next three to four months.
The warning came from the deputy chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC), Dr Tony Tan, who urged policymakers to take strong action to stabilise investment markets and sentiment amid the extreme uncertainty surrounding the global economy.
'We could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years,' he said on Monday.
'The next few years may well be among the most challenging years for GIC since our establishment in 1981.'
As for GIC's recent investments into global banks UBS and Citigroup, Dr Tan said these long-term investments will 'give us good returns when markets stabilise and economic conditions return to more normal levels'.
The world economy and its financial markets are in turmoil, sparked off by a mortgage crisis in the United States that is still unfolding.
VIDEO
GIC warns of 'longer, deeper, wider' recession
(2:42)
The crisis of confidence has led central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, to intervene in unprecedented ways to avert a seizure in the world's banking system.
Dr Tan told about 500 staff at GIC's first annual staff conference: 'The prospects for the US economy and possibly even the world economy are fraught with considerable downside risks.'
He warned that financial markets will be 'extremely nervous and volatile over the next one to two years'.
But the pain can be reduced and shortened if policymakers around the world act swiftly, he said. If so, 'investment markets and sentiments can turn around sharply'. |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 11:59 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | how do you feel when you realised that you could have bought your condo $500K cheaper? |
very angry of course
so all buyers wise up with your $
look out people who tried to paint a rosy picture with hidden agenda |
You are being courteous! Those brokers are liars and they are all out to con you. Often they quote Ura data or similar. If you totally trust them you are dead meat! |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 12:03 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.
We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.
Rationale was simple and not rocket science.
#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.
#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.
#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.
#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)
#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.
#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.
#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.
#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.
We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.
Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.
Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.
The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.
The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray. |
so well written
how come u dun sent it to straits time and ask them to publish?
or inside got some loops holes
if u want to let ppl know
then u should let the entire nation see right? how come u only
post it here? |
Are you kidding me? You think the straits times will publish this? The gov has been hyping everything in SG to get rich foreigners to buyout property. They want to continue to create the illusion that things will stay high. |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 12:06 pm
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Diva need no convoluting essays of Greenspan. He needs only two words: FALL FALL FALL, SELL SELL SELL!
The best essay I mave seen! |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 1:15 pm
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one reminder:
it is very difficult to make back the money you lost.
it is very easy to lose the money you made. |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 4:42 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | Diva need no convoluting essays of Greenspan. He needs only two words: FALL FALL FALL, SELL SELL SELL!
The best essay I mave seen! |
Right On !!! Mate |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 5:08 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | how do you feel when you realised that you could have bought your condo $500K cheaper? |
very angry of course
so all buyers wise up with your $
look out people who tried to paint a rosy picture with hidden agenda |
You are being courteous! Those brokers are liars and they are all out to con you. Often they quote Ura data or similar. If you totally trust them you are dead meat! |
Cons or cheats are always around us. it is individual responsibities to safeguard ourselves by checking around with trusted source or exercising sound judgement on whether a piece of information is genuine.
if cheated / conned then cry and complaint here and there already too late
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 8:42 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Singapore's government will not wish to see the HDB flat prices go down because the retirees use part of their HDB flats to pay for their Annuity. |
No wonder mass market still SO STRONG lah!!
You got the point lah!! |
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Guest
on 30 Apr 08 8:47 pm
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Mass market market shd be preserved ..... they affect the middle class.
The condo & landed property markets can take care of themselves ....
even if prices are down, the richer ones are relatively less affected. |
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Guest
on 01 May 08 9:58 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | actually was just talking to a banker today n realised one thing..... in the short term we really dun have to be worried of runaway prices again... due to of course credit issue. For eg, banks in Singapore use to give 90 per cent loan no issue at all but now things have all changed. The only banks I know of giving is only DBS n OCBC ( I think). Banks are very careful of with giving out credits now n even if they are willing to give 90 per cent loan ..... they have a very stringent criteria for one to qualify. I mean very very tight. Just think about it ... do you really think the developers are really cutting their losses over those failed en bloc projects n losing 20 over millions over it? More like they failed to secure themselves the easy credits from investment banks they once used to be able to obtain without much difficulties.
What that means is simple..... ppl can't get easy credit and coupled with the current stock market n volatility, most buyers will not have that 20 per cent cash plus CPF especially for medium to high end properties.
Still not convinced? Look ard the ad n most sellers are now already willing to low their prices to even 600 plus psf for medium end projects . The best one to ask is your agents ....
WIth prices not going up in any time soon n massive supply coming up..... buyers really have all the time in the world to hunt for an ideal property. |
Yep...buyers is King now |
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Guest
on 01 May 08 10:36 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | Diva need no convoluting essays of Greenspan. He needs only two words: FALL FALL FALL, SELL SELL SELL!
The best essay I mave seen! |
Aiyo.. this Diva are as useless as Greenspan lah.. things happened already then talk big big.. moreover predicted always not right one!! |
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Guest
on 01 May 08 10:41 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | | how do you feel when you realised that you could have bought your condo $500K cheaper? |
Aiyo.. don't be kok lah.. $500k cheaper are those high end market for the rich.. they won't be bother lah...
Why you so bothered... you better concentrate on your low end whether still can afford or not lah.. |
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Guest
on 01 May 08 11:07 am
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LONDON (Reuters) - The scale of losses and the economic fallout from the credit crunch may not be as bad as feared and sub-prime write-offs could end up costing less than half market forecasts, the Bank of England said on Thursday.
The credit crunch has frozen money markets and rattled consumers around the world, pushing the global economy to the edge of a sharp slowdown after banks lost confidence in each other due to defaults on low-end mortgages in the United States.
If the fallout from the crisis turns out to be not as drastic as many fear, the implications for global interest rate -- and fiscal -- policy will be significant.
Current market estimates of sub-prime mortgages amount to nearly $400 billion (200 billion pounds) and the IMF has said the wider cost to the financial sector could rise to $1 trillion.
"All of them are potentially significant overestimates of the losses within the wider economy associated with the financial market crisis," the Bank of England said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, estimating actual losses could be closer to $170 billion.
"Using a mark-to-market approach to value illiquid securities could significantly exaggerate the scale of losses that financial institutions might ultimately occur. It will exaggerate to an even greater extent the potential damage to the real economy."
UNSYMPATHETIC LINE
The BoE has been criticised for taking an unsympathetic line on the lending squeeze. The U.S. Federal Reserve has drastically cut interest rates and, along with the European Central Bank, made cash much easier for banks to get hold of.
However, the Bank of England responded to pressure to ease the squeeze last week, announcing an unprecedented 50 billion pound swap scheme under which banks can trade in their hard to shift assets for risk-free government debt, which is now going to plan.
The central bank is clearly concerned about the consequences of the credit crunch, but Deputy Governor John Gieve struck an optimistic tone in a statement released with the report.
"The unavoidable correction after the credit boom is proving protracted and difficult," Gieve said. "While there remain downside risks, the most likely path ahead is that confidence and risk appetite will return gradually in the coming months."
Bank of England policymakers say they are wary of rescuing institutions from the consequences of their own risky behaviour and have to balance the very real threat of rising inflation against the harder to gauge prospect of a decelerating economy.
"Losses recorded by financial institutions erode their capital, which may reduce their ability to offer finance to other households and corporations. This may have a detrimental impact on economic performance," the Bank of England said.
"But it is at least partly offset by the household sector being in a less weak state than if its mortgage debts had had to be repaid in full."
Nonetheless, there is strong evidence to suggest the British economy is already suffering at the hands of the credit crunch, with house prices falling, home loan approvals at record lows and consumer confidence at 15 year lows.
Bank of England arch dove policymaker David Blanchflower warned on Tuesday policymakers must act aggressively to stave off the real risk of following the United States into a recession and a 30 percent slump in house prices.
Other members of the MPC have been more sanguine about the economy. Governor Mervyn King told lawmakers on Tuesday that a period of slower growth would not be a "disaster", saying it wasn't all doom and gloom just yet. |
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