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 05 May 08 6:56 pm |
It's not just short term, the economy crisis has just started after the banking and subprime crisis that get it started.
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History SuggestsBy GREG IP
May 5, 2008; Page A2
The worst of the financial pain may have passed, but the economic pain could be just starting.
The nation's financial markets have rallied since early March, with stocks up and yields on risky corporate and mortgage-backed bonds falling relative to safe U.S. Treasurys. Optimists got an added boost Friday from a government report that U.S. unemployment fell in April.
But history suggests celebration may be premature. It's common in a crisis for markets to hit bottom long before the economy does. That's because markets are forward-looking and because economic weakness is the way the underlying imbalances that produced a crisis are corrected. |
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05 May 08 11:29 pm |
even US recession has disappoint alot of potential property buyer in singapore....bcos singapore property price still going up.  |
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06 May 08 10:10 am |
| brother, you better reduce your risks. |
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06 May 08 11:13 pm |
VACANT REAL(I)TY
----------------------
REPORT PUT OUT BY AN INVESTMENT BANK YESTERDAY FOR CLIENTS
They are calling for the bursting of property bubble. Prices already down 20%, but to fall by another 40%.
Reasons given :
1. Withdrawal of liquidity
2. Dumping by marginal speculators. Many investors holding multiple properties, unable to cough up additional margin demanded by banks and unable to get out as no buyers
3. Price cuts by developers on unsold units
4. Rising supply and sharp rise in vacant homes
5. Deterioration in employment situation
6. Low rental yields with rentals falling
7. Slow capital flows , less attractive with S$ strengthening
Analyst projects 40% decline which would still make prices 25% higher than 2005 which is the equilibrium level.
Buyer beware !! |
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07 May 08 3:07 am |
once URA releases stats of declining prices this quarter, thats when the downward momentum will pick up.
Right now people are still optimist about an uptrend happening soon. Once they panic, everyone will be rushing to sell their property. |
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07 May 08 9:20 am |
| expect the un-expected. |
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07 May 08 9:27 am |
| once the last burst of liquidity buys up the market, then next wave of selling comes and knock everybody down with a strong and unexpected blow. this is capitalism, nothing is assured. |
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08 May 08 5:25 am |
I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts....
as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% more ..... singapore property price will still maintain or increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion.
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... DIVA follower, BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT alway not one step behind but many steps behind .......property investment are big and long term investment..... SMALL LITTLE KIDS like DIVA, BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT should join the kids forum to buy/sell stamps instead of talking about property investment .....just do what u are best in cut & paste...and remember to pay your rental on time.....for my sinking boat...lan lan even 15% rental increase, FOLLOWER still want to stay in my sinking boat... bobain pay for me to stay in condo....  |
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08 May 08 7:12 am |
Credit crisis over? Not likely
Short-term rallies and wishful thinking have buyers ready to pounce, but the end of the credit mess isn't yet here. In the meantime, here's some speculation on bank stocks.
Latest Market Update
May 07, 2008 -- 11:00 ET [BRIEFING.COM]
By Jon Markman
The major stock indexes blasted to two-month highs last week in defiance of wretched news on the economy, one of those reverso-world moves that the market gods use to keep the public wrong-footed. It seems negative sentiment is so pronounced right now that every time the news is one lumen brighter than total blackness, buyers emerge from their foxholes to nibble.
Yet Satyajit Das, an independent debt derivatives expert who for years has warned of an impending disaster in credit markets, doesn't buy it. I caught him at his Sydney, Australia, office a few days after he emerged from a three-month backcountry trek, and he leapt at the chance to scoff at U.S. bank presidents' vows that the worst of the credit crisis is over.
Paraphrasing Winston Churchill, in a voice dripping with Aussie irony, he quipped, "This is not the end or even the beginning of the end, though it may be the end of the beginning."
Das, who wrote the global credit derivatives business's most widely used textbook, argues that no matter how much equity investors try to ignore the imbalances in debt that continue to weigh on banks' balance sheets, the problem won't go away.
"Given that the bank presidents have been consistently wrong about everything they've said about their losses until now, why on earth would anyone believe them now?" he asked.
Tip of the credit-crisis iceberg
Das' point was driven home last week by Citigroup's (C, news, msgs) announcement of the sale of an additional $4.5 billion worth of shares -- its fifth attempt to raise capital in the past five months, each of which management hinted would be the last.
The troubled bank has now raised $40 billion in the most expensive possible way -- diluting current shareholders -- while contending that everything's fine. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they were surprised at the paltry amount raised in this round, suggesting it was the best the bank could do for now given its worsening prospects.
Why would anyone want to purchase Citigroup shares on the open or private markets? Buyers believe banks such as Citi have, at their cores, outstanding franchises that the hyenas who have run them recently haven't entirely ruined. Sellers disagree, with Das in particular contending that such wishful thinking ignores the massive "de-leveraging" of the global financial system under way now that threatens to impair banks' ability to lend and grow for years to come.
To believe the worst is over, Das notes, you would have to believe that bank managers have obtained a firm grip on their credit-related losses and have written down at least half of the ultimate total, and that declining home values won't create more losses. He thinks this is impossible because the banks own many of the same losing securities yet have variously written off anywhere from 30% to 80% of their face values.
Das figures that since few banks likely overestimated their losses, the variance in the write-offs means most banks continue to underestimate their losses. Thus he calculates that the $200 billion raised from outside sources so far is just a down payment and that banks have up to $700 billion more to go -- an amount far in excess of their total earnings over the past half-decade.
Today's state of the U.S. economy may not seem apocalyptic, but a slow and steady economic beating could prove disastrous, MSN Money's Jim Jubak says.
And it's not just losses on current holdings that are the problem. Das wishes to remind investors of the $1 trillion to $3 trillion that's still in the process of moving onto the banks' balance sheets from related entities where they were hidden. These off-balance-sheet units were created to permit banks to buy vast sums of credit derivatives that they had designed in exchange for big fees. The holdings of the units, called structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, were then used as collateral to do more borrowing from money market funds, again generating more fees. (Seems like we are into bigger trouble soon)
Keeping these highly leveraged units off the books meant banks did not have to counterbalance them with any permanent capital, or equity. This was a crucial link in the global liquidity factory that provided funds for this decade's credit bubble.
The cost of a broken lever
Now that money market funds have stopped buying commercial paper issued by SIVs, banking regulations require the banks to bring them onto their books, and that means they must shore up their capital base by selling new shares or shedding other assets. Every dollar that is used for this purpose is a dollar that can't be used to make loans for corporate buybacks, commercial customers or hedge funds. Without such loans, banks' earnings growth will be greatly impaired.
Worse still, the buying power of two key drivers of the last bull market -- hedge funds and corporate Treasurys -- has been crippled because the leverage they've used to reap big profits has suddenly turned against them.
Here's an example of how that leverage works: Assume a hedge fund has $20 of real capital. If a bank allows it to leverage five times its capital, the fund can acquire $100 of risky assets with $20 of equity and $80 of debt. Now assume the assets fall by 10% in value, or $10. The hedge fund's leverage suddenly increases to nine times -- that's $10 of equity (the original amount less the loss) and $80 of debt now supporting $90 of assets.
If the permitted leverage stays constant at five times, then the hedge fund must sell $50 of assets, or 50% of its holdings. If lenders more realistically reduce permissible leverage to three times the loss, then the hedge fund must then sell $70 of assets, or 70% of its holdings. This process is bad enough in normal markets, but when buyers are scarce, prices of these involuntary sales are knocked down to levels that can wipe out the fund.
This scenario continues to play out across the global economy with occasional timeouts. As hedge funds deleverage in fits and starts, much of their inventory is going back to bank balance sheets. This is known in the banking business as involuntary asset growth, and it isn't good. It forces banks to issue more new equity to comply with international capitalization rules, further undermining current shareholders.
Deleveraging is going on among corporations and individuals as well, leading to less buying power for both. That leaves less money available for homes, cars, televisions and travel, further leading to the sort of buyers strike characteristic of long periods of slow or stagnant economic growth.
In sum, it's easy to get carried away with the idea that stocks can levitate from extreme lows as greed kicks in and kindles buyers' interest for bargains. But the borrowed money that previously bulled stocks toward last year's high is gone, and so is the earnings-growth confidence that's necessary to push price-earnings multiples higher.
It appears that a real secular, or structural, change has occurred that makes our past understanding of how banks perform outdated. So Das suggests you enjoy occasional two- to three-month advances as the speculative opportunities that they are, but don't be surprised if permanent improvement is much more elusive as financial stocks remain under pressure for at least an additional year or two, and possibly longer. |
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08 May 08 10:08 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts....
as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% more ..... singapore property price will still maintain or increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion.
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... DIVA follower, BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT alway not one step behind but many steps behind .......property investment are big and long term investment..... SMALL LITTLE KIDS like DIVA, BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT should join the kids forum to buy/sell stamps instead of talking about property investment .....just do what u are best in cut & paste...and remember to pay your rental on time.....for my sinking boat...lan lan even 15% rental increase, FOLLOWER still want to stay in my sinking boat... bobain pay for me to stay in condo.... |
Continue to believe in what your government is telling you through their censored media. A happy little straits-times reading drone! Keep dreaming! |
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08 May 08 5:17 pm |
The non-deliverable forward market in China
is completely reassessing its view of the currency
appreciation. |
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08 May 08 6:04 pm |
So is RMB appreciating to contain inflation? If their currency very strong, they may buy a lot of properties overseas. Including Singapore.  |
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08 May 08 6:13 pm |
| no, market is lowering its expectations of strong appreciation of the chinese yuan. however, it might be due to the chinese moving their money out of china, a bit of it might land in singapore. |
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| Re: Price increasing for singapore property ! |
08 May 08 7:35 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | Singapore property downturn has overlong lasting from 1997 until 2007 then pick up in about 30%. for those people who are interested in long term investment in property, better buy now since the market has slow down a bit before it is too late.. don't expect for fall 20% from the current level, that is history.... for district 9 Dhoby Ghaut MRT, river valley area.
all future near MRT condo are selling $1000 up (minimum) so dun't expect district 9 to come any closer to this range....
with the economy slowing down, investment in share market has taken a bitten, US interest rate cut of 0.75 percent to 3.5%....smart people will transfer their money investment to a save heaven which is property sector in singapore which has not been raisen so much as compare to those asian countries...about 30% for 2007....
singapore has attracted new investment and created another 8000 new jobs in the last quarter of 2007. more foreign are expected to come into singapore. Even more jobs creation when the casino start to operate, more foreigner will come into singapore....singapore infractstucture have improved since 1997 and the proper market has slowed down for about 10 years, year 2007 is the first year proper market pick up, it will not die down so soon..... mininum expect to grow for at least 5 - 10 years. as long as economy grow, property price will increase accordingly. Even with a higher inflation rate, property price will grow faster that means (economy + inflation) rate together....
I am a long term investor in parc emily since it launch in 2005.... can fetech high rental return value, at $1400 level near Dhoby Ghaut MRT. Do you know that wakie edge 100+ apartment is not for sale, developer are not selling those units for no reason, SMU and Casino is nearby mount sohpia emily with walking distance to MRT, new launching at nearby area between $1600 to $1773 psf for CDL and another new Sophia road development.
latest 600 sft selling $1 million new launch
wah, very tempted to sell to take profit but i think i will hold for longer term.....
future price appreciation in the mount emily and sophia area is tremendous.....watch out |
Parc Emily ....cannot make it ...Million dollar pigeon hole ...cannot sell... |
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| Re: Price increasing for singapore property ! |
08 May 08 7:42 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: |
Parc Emily ....cannot make it ...Million dollar pigeon hole ...cannot sell... |
I know you Missed the Parc Emily Boat.. that makes you keep talking about this project.. but you can afford pigeon hole at Dist 9 meh??
If till now you also can't afford a low end at Woodland... why don't you try JB... you should be able to buy a big affordable home for yourself leh...
Bottom line is... I think S'pore is not suitable for you lah!!! |
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08 May 08 7:49 pm |
Poor you ...nobody going to buy or rent your condo wait long long loh
Look at the list below.....
Condo at District 9 FOR RENT OR FOR SALE
1 2RVG New!
2 8 @ Mount Sophia
3 96 Sophia Road
4 Angullia View
5 Aspen Heights
6 Astoria Apartments
7 Belle Vue
8 Cairnhill Crest New!
9 Cairnhill Gardens
10 Cairnhill Heights
11 Cairnhill Plaza
12 Casa Cairnhill
13 Casa Jervois
14 Cavenagh Gardens
15 Char Yong Gardens
16 Devonshire Apartment
17 Devonshire Building
18 Elizabeth Heights
19 Elizabeth Regency
20 Elizabeth Tower
21 Emerald Hill Apartment
22 Emerald Lodge
23 Emily Residence New!
24 Euro-Asia Court
25 Futura
26 Gambier Court
27 Grange Tower
28 Grangeford Apartment
29 High Point
30 Hilltops
31 Horizon TowersE
32 Horizon View
33 Kim Yam Heights
34 Kimsia Court
35 La Crystal
36 Le Chateau
37 Leonie Condotel
38 Leonie Gardens
39 Leonie Hill Residences New!
40 Leonie Studio New!
41 Leonie Towers
42 Mackenzie 138 New!
43 Mirage Tower
44 Pacific Mansion
45 Parisian
46 Paterson Lodge
47 Paterson Tower
48 Residences at 338A
49 Richmond Park
50 Riverside 48
51 Riveria Point
52 Rivershire
53 Robertson 100
54 Robertson Blue New!
55 Scotts 28
56 Scotts Tower
57 Skyline Angullia
58 Sophia 98
59 Sophia Court
60 The Abode At Devonshire
61 The Bayron
62 The Beaumont
63 The Botanic on Lloyd New!
64 The Cairnhill
65 The Claremont
66 The Claymore
67 The Edge On Cairnhill
68 The Esquire
69 The Imperial New!
70 The Light @ Cairnhill
71 The Metz New!
72 The Morningside
73 The Oxley
74 The Paterson
75 The Paterson Edge
76 The Pier at Robertson New!
77 The Quayside
78 The Regalia
79 Tiara
80 UE Square
81 Urbana New!
82 Valley Mansions
83 Venus Mansion
84 Visioncrest Residence New!
85 Welkin Mansion
86 Wilkie 48
87 Wilkie Regency
88 Yong An Park
89 Niven Road Shophouse
90 Kim Yam Road Shophouse |
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08 May 08 7:58 pm |
| Wah... you listed now all your dream projects hah... very expensive one leh!! You don't like pigeon hole... but you can't even afford one there... I suggest you don't waste your time dreaming lah!! |
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08 May 08 8:05 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | Poor you ...nobody going to buy or rent your condo wait long long loh
Look at the list below.....
Condo at District 9 FOR RENT OR FOR SALE
1 2RVG New!
2 8 @ Mount Sophia
3 96 Sophia Road
4 Angullia View
5 Aspen Heights
6 Astoria Apartments
7 Belle Vue
8 Cairnhill Crest New!
9 Cairnhill Gardens
10 Cairnhill Heights
11 Cairnhill Plaza
12 Casa Cairnhill
13 Casa Jervois
14 Cavenagh Gardens
15 Char Yong Gardens
16 Devonshire Apartment
17 Devonshire Building
18 Elizabeth Heights
19 Elizabeth Regency
20 Elizabeth Tower
21 Emerald Hill Apartment
22 Emerald Lodge
23 Emily Residence New!
24 Euro-Asia Court
25 Futura
26 Gambier Court
27 Grange Tower
28 Grangeford Apartment
29 High Point
30 Hilltops
31 Horizon TowersE
32 Horizon View
33 Kim Yam Heights
34 Kimsia Court
35 La Crystal
36 Le Chateau
37 Leonie Condotel
38 Leonie Gardens
39 Leonie Hill Residences New!
40 Leonie Studio New!
41 Leonie Towers
42 Mackenzie 138 New!
43 Mirage Tower
44 Pacific Mansion
45 Parisian
46 Paterson Lodge
47 Paterson Tower
48 Residences at 338A
49 Richmond Park
50 Riverside 48
51 Riveria Point
52 Rivershire
53 Robertson 100
54 Robertson Blue New!
55 Scotts 28
56 Scotts Tower
57 Skyline Angullia
58 Sophia 98
59 Sophia Court
60 The Abode At Devonshire
61 The Bayron
62 The Beaumont
63 The Botanic on Lloyd New!
64 The Cairnhill
65 The Claremont
66 The Claymore
67 The Edge On Cairnhill
68 The Esquire
69 The Imperial New!
70 The Light @ Cairnhill
71 The Metz New!
72 The Morningside
73 The Oxley
74 The Paterson
75 The Paterson Edge
76 The Pier at Robertson New!
77 The Quayside
78 The Regalia
79 Tiara
80 UE Square
81 Urbana New!
82 Valley Mansions
83 Venus Mansion
84 Visioncrest Residence New!
85 Welkin Mansion
86 Wilkie 48
87 Wilkie Regency
88 Yong An Park
89 Niven Road Shophouse
90 Kim Yam Road Shophouse |
Poor you ...nobody going to buy or rent your condo wait long long loh |
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08 May 08 8:16 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: |
Poor you ...nobody going to buy or rent your condo wait long long loh |
Wah.. till now still repeating the same thing hah.. you must have confident with your uncle crash stories mah.. kena conned by uncle already right!!
Cannot tahan rental already right!! |
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