 |
Sponsored Links
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
 15 Jul 08 10:52 pm |
| BULLSHIT. |
|
|
 |
|
|
Guest
|
|
15 Jul 08 11:16 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | BULLSHIT. |
ITS COMING. THE FINANCIAL TSUNAMI. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
15 Jul 08 11:30 pm |
| ITS CALMING. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
16 Jul 08 3:10 pm |
| Yeah! I want to buy cheap cheap. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
16 Jul 08 3:11 pm |
| Then wait for 5-yrs loh! |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
16 Jul 08 6:14 pm |
| I am selling my condo at half price. any takers? |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
16 Jul 08 8:32 pm |
US faces global funding crisis, warns Merrill Lynch
Last Updated: 9:21pm BST 15/07/2008
The US Treasury may have just days to act before foreign patience snaps, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Merrill Lynch has warned that the United States could face a foreign "financing crisis" within months as the full consequences of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage debacle spread through the world.
The country depends on Asian, Russian and Middle Eastern investors to fund much of its $700bn (£350bn) current account deficit, leaving it far more vulnerable to a collapse of confidence than Japan in the early 1990s after the Nikkei bubble burst. Britain and other Anglo-Saxon deficit states could face a similar retreat by foreign investors.
"Japan was able to cut its interest rates to zero," said Alex Patelis, Merrill's head of international economics.
"It would be very difficult for the US to do this. Foreigners will not be willing to supply the capital. Nobody knows where the limit lies."
Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at Global Insight, said the US Treasury had two or three days to put real money behind its rescue plan for Fannie and Freddie or face a dangerous crisis that could spiral out of control.
"This is not the time for policy-makers to underestimate, once again, the systemic risks to the financial system and the huge damage this would impose on the economy. Bold, aggressive action is needed, and needed now," he said.
Mr Bethune said the Treasury would have to inject up $20bn in fresh capital. This in turn might draw in a further $20bn in private money. Funds on this scale would be enough to see the two agencies through any scenario short of a meltdown in the US prime property market.
He said concerns about "moral hazard" - stoked by hard-line free-marketeers at the White House and vocal parts of the US media - were holding up a solution. "We can't dither. The markets can be brutal. We have to break the chain of contagion before confidence is destroyed."
Fannie and Freddie - the world's two biggest financial institutions - make up almost half the $12 trillion US mortgage industry. But that understates their vital importance at this juncture. They are now serving as lender of last resort to the housing market, providing 80pc of all new home loans.
Roughly $1.5 trillion of Fannie and Freddie AAA-rated debt - as well as other US "government-sponsored enterprises" - is now in foreign hands. The great unknown is whether foreign patience will snap as losses mount and the dollar slides.
Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's chief regulator, rattled the markets yesterday when he urged Japanese banks and life insurance companies to treat US agency debt with caution. The two sets of institutions hold an estimated $56bn of these bonds. Mitsubishi UFJ holds $3bn. Nippon Life has $2.5bn.
But the lion's share is held by the central banks of China, Russia and petro-powers. These countries could all too easily precipitate a run on the dollar in the current climate and bring the United States to its knees, should they decide that it is in their strategic interest to do so.
Mr Patelis said it was unlikely that any would want to trigger a fire-sale by dumping their holdings on the market. Instead, they will probably accumulate US and Anglo-Saxon debt at a slower rate. That alone will be enough to leave deficit countries struggling to plug the capital gap. "I don't see how the current situation can continue beyond six months," he said.
Merrill Lynch said foreign governments had added $241bn of US agency debt over the past year alone as their foreign reserves exploded, accounting for a third of total financing for the US current account deficit. (They now own $985bn in all.) By most estimates, China holds around $400bn, Russia $150bn and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states at least $200bn.
Global inflation is now intruding with a vengeance as well. Much of Asia is having to raise rates aggressively, drawing capital away from North America. This may push up yields on US Treasuries and bonds, tightening the credit screw at a time when the US is already mired in slump.
Russia's deputy finance minister, Dmitry Pankin, said the collapse in the share prices of Fannie and Freddie over the past week was irrelevant because their debt has been effectively guaranteed by the US government under the rescue package.
"We don't see a reason to change anything because the rating of the debt of those agencies hasn't changed," he said.
Foreign policy experts doubt that the picture is so simple. Russia is likely to use its $530bn reserves as an implicit bargaining chip in high-stakes diplomacy, perhaps to discourage the US from extending Nato membership to the Ukraine and Georgia.
Vladimir Putin, now Russia's premier, has stated repeatedly that his country is engaged in a new Cold War with the United States. It is clear that Moscow would relish any chance to humiliate the United States, provided the costs of doing so were not too high for Russia itself.
China is regarded as a more reliable partner, with a greater desire for global stability. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has intimate relations with the Chinese elite, dating from his days at Goldman Sachs when he visited the country over 70 times.
Brad Setser, from the US Council on Foreign Relations, said the Chinese have a stake in upholding Fannie and Freddie, not least to ensure that their loans are "honoured on time and in full".
David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said fears that regional banks could start toppling after the Fed takeover of IndyMac last week were now the biggest threat to the dollar.
"We have a pure dollar sell-off," he said. "It's a hating competition: at the moment the markets hate the dollar more than they hate the euro, even though German's ZEW confidence indicator was absolutely atrocious."
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/16/ccusdebt116.xml |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
17 Jul 08 3:21 pm |
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports fall 10.5% in June
By Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 17 July 2008 1411 hrs
SINGAPORE: Singapore's key non-oil domestic exports fell 10.5 per cent year-on-year in June to about S$12.8 billion (about US$9.5 billion).
They were weighed down by weakness in both electronic and non-electronic exports.
There were lower shipments of consumer items and semiconductors, as well as chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Electronics shipments in June fell 14.6 per cent from a year ago.
Exports of drugs declined 22.3 per cent in the same period.
Petrochemicals exports were down 7.2 per cent.
The June headline figure was worse than market expectations.
It was also unchanged from the May report, which saw a 10.5 per cent drop.
According to IE Singapore, which compiled the data, exports to Malaysia, South Korea and Hong Kong rose.
But exports to the rest of Singapore's top 10 markets fell in June, with exports to the United States, the European Union and China being the hardest hit.
On a year-on-year basis, non-oil re-exports increased 2.4 per cent in June, compared to the 11 per cent growth in May.
Adjusted for seasonal variations, non-oil exports in June rose 4.2 per cent from the month before.
Economists say the figures confirm falling demand from the American and European markets.
They suggest that exports may remain a drag on headline economic growth in the second half of the year.
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports are closely watched because they account for about 70 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
17 Jul 08 4:15 pm |
| not sure why singapore private property is still holding strongly even US recession....want to buy cheap cheap also cannot... help help anyone selling cheap cheap...! i cannot afford, pls help me ! |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
17 Jul 08 4:33 pm |
| there is a guy selling his condo half price. maybe can try. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
17 Jul 08 7:34 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | there is a guy selling his condo half price. maybe can try. |
Yes but still cant get takers since all are expecting it to go even lower. Maybe he will be glad to sell you at half price. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
17 Jul 08 8:22 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | not sure why singapore private property is still holding strongly even US recession....want to buy cheap cheap also cannot... help help anyone selling cheap cheap...! i cannot afford, pls help me ! |
learn from diva follower, wait for 5 years |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 8:39 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | not sure why singapore private property is still holding strongly even US recession....want to buy cheap cheap also cannot... help help anyone selling cheap cheap...! i cannot afford, pls help me ! |
learn from diva follower, wait for 5 years |
please take diva's name with reverence. say His Highness DIVA. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 10:34 am |
As usual, watch what I said over 9-mths ago:
The previous major resistant was somewhere in 2600-2700 level which was the previous peak in (Yr1994)(Yr1996)(Yr2000)... This resistant has been rise gradually close to 2800. This resistant was broken in end 2006... And only then we saw a suddenly surge in property market in Feb/Mar 07 just after CNY. (just like a turbo spinning to gather its power.. without you knowing it till you have a sudden surge of power in the car once the turbo kicks in)
Since the major resistant was broken, its now become a major support of the whole upswing. So now the STI already entering into a new zone of 28XX to 39XX.
28XX became a major support now & 39XX became a major resistant now. Both will rise gradually & thats why some analysis predicted it will reach 4000 level when its going to try for the 2nd time.
So as long as STI remain above at this major support (around 2800 level)... thats isn't much adjustment to our property market! If later STI started to climb.. you still don't believe.. till above 3500.. 3600 level.. then is too late for you if you still hoping for any correction in property market, even for the next few years.. at least!!  |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 10:52 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | As usual, watch what I said over 9-mths ago:
The previous major resistant was somewhere in 2600-2700 level which was the previous peak in (Yr1994)(Yr1996)(Yr2000)... This resistant has been rise gradually close to 2800. This resistant was broken in end 2006... And only then we saw a suddenly surge in property market in Feb/Mar 07 just after CNY. (just like a turbo spinning to gather its power.. without you knowing it till you have a sudden surge of power in the car once the turbo kicks in)
Since the major resistant was broken, its now become a major support of the whole upswing. So now the STI already entering into a new zone of 28XX to 39XX.
28XX became a major support now & 39XX became a major resistant now. Both will rise gradually & thats why some analysis predicted it will reach 4000 level when its going to try for the 2nd time.
So as long as STI remain above at this major support (around 2800 level)... thats isn't much adjustment to our property market! If later STI started to climb.. you still don't believe.. till above 3500.. 3600 level.. then is too late for you if you still hoping for any correction in property market, even for the next few years.. at least!! |
KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT. FIRST SAY 'RESISTANCE' INSTEAD OF 'RESISTANT'. CORRECT YOUR SPELLINGS. THEN CORRECT THE GRAMMAR. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 10:55 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | As usual, watch what I said over 9-mths ago:
The previous major resistant was somewhere in 2600-2700 level which was the previous peak in (Yr1994)(Yr1996)(Yr2000)... This resistant has been rise gradually close to 2800. This resistant was broken in end 2006... And only then we saw a suddenly surge in property market in Feb/Mar 07 just after CNY. (just like a turbo spinning to gather its power.. without you knowing it till you have a sudden surge of power in the car once the turbo kicks in)
Since the major resistant was broken, its now become a major support of the whole upswing. So now the STI already entering into a new zone of 28XX to 39XX.
28XX became a major support now & 39XX became a major resistant now. Both will rise gradually & thats why some analysis predicted it will reach 4000 level when its going to try for the 2nd time.
So as long as STI remain above at this major support (around 2800 level)... thats isn't much adjustment to our property market! If later STI started to climb.. you still don't believe.. till above 3500.. 3600 level.. then is too late for you if you still hoping for any correction in property market, even for the next few years.. at least!! |
You can't even spell correctly....please go back to Desker Road and perhaps you can convince the Uncle and Aunty down there on your prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 11:27 am |
Property price slide a China success
By Olivia Chung
New-home buyers in China's most prosperous cities along with leading developers such as China Vanke are, like their counterparts in the US, feeling the pain as property values tumble below their purchase price and sales slow.
But where the US government is seeking to alleviate the distress of its citizens by encouraging mortgage payment rescheduling and other measures, the authorities in Beijing can congratulate themselves for engineering the price slide in urban centers such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and the capital itself.
Shenzhen, a fast-growing modern metropolis bordering Hong Kong, leads the country in terms of falling values and declining transaction numbers for new homes, as government measures taken over the past two years to cool what was seen as a dangerously overheated property market have started to make an impact.
The government last September raised the cost of second-home mortgages, increasing the down-payment ratio for such loans to 40% from 30% and setting the mortgage rate for the loans at 1.1 times the People’s Bank of China’s base lending rate.
Further tightening measures will probably follow before the year end, said First Shanghai Securities strategist Linus Yip.
The average price of new homes in Shenzhen fell 36% from their peak of 17,350 yuan (US$2,540) per square meter last October to 11,014 yuan per sqm in May, according to the city's municipal bureau of land resources and housing management. That's in sharp contrast to the 65% price surge in just the first six months of 2007.
Prices in Shenzhen, a city of more than 12 million people, could fall a further 10%-15% over the next 12 months, said Citic Ka Wah Bank chief economist Liao Qun, who forecast similar further falls in Guangzhou and declines of up to 10% in Beijing and Shanghai.
New-home transactions dropped 46% in Beijing in the year to May, slid 31% in Guangzhou, just north of Shenzhen, and fell more than 16% in Shanghai, Liao said.
Shenzhen has been the worst hit of key cities as its real-estate market had shown the most rapid growth, mainly driven by speculation, since early 2005, while expansion of the market in other cities had been relatively steady, Liao said.
At the same time, and "in contrast to the weakness of market demand, market supply is accelerating as a result of the excessive growth in real estate investment in the past years," he said.
That oversupply is hitting companies such as China Vanke, the country's largest publicly traded property developer. Its shares, which trade in the Shenzhen stock market, have crashed about 64% since last November 1, outpacing a 41% drop in the local benchmark A-share index. They are down about 23% from last June.
Vanke, in a statement filed to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange this month, said it made 19.76 billion yuan in sales in the first five months this year, or only 35% of last year’s total sales.
Poly Real Estate Group, the country’s second-largest property company, recorded sales of 6.65 billion yuan in the first five months, accounting for only 27.7% of the company’s full-year sales target.
Away from main cities, property prices continue to rise, albeit in June at the slowest pace in 10 months, Bloomberg reported this week, citing National Development and Reform Commission data published on the economic planning agency's website. Property prices in 70 major cities increased by 8.2% from a year earlier last month, one percentage point slower than in May, the report said.
"Property prices are still rising in most cities and have only shown substantial declines in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities in the Pearl River Delta," Liao said. "Based on previous experience during 2003-2006, when property prices rebounded strongly after a short break in response to a tightening measure, it is likely the government is now targeting a deeper price adjustment this time around, or will at least prefer to see prices stabilize at current levels for a longer time."
The fall in values is forcing many owners such as Shenzhen white-collar worker Zhang Hong to consider whether to maintain mortgage payments. Zhang bought an apartment in the city's Nanshan district for about 800,000 yuan in mid-2007. It is now worth about 600,000 yuan.
"A few times, I have considered giving up my apartment, with the the price decreases exceeding my [150,000 yuan] down payment," he said. "But I need the flat, which is the only place for my family to live, and I have no other choice."
Other owners are walking away from their debt, prompting denials of rumors that bad loans held by banks are rising steeply. Bad loans increased 0.02% in the first five months this year to 11 million yuan in May, according to a Shenzhen Economic Daily report. The report cited an unnamed manager in charge of a bank’s mortgage division who rejected as "ridiculous" a rumor circulating on the Internet that banks locally had more than 100 billion yuan of bad loans related to the property market.
Speculators are stopping their mortgage payments after facing the prospect of substantial losses, the Nandu Weekly reported.
The city’s commercial banks have a total of only 220 billion yuan in mortgage assets, and bad loans accounted for only 0.67% of the total volume, the Shenzhen Economic Daily report said.
Olivia Chung is a senior Asia Times Online reporter. |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 7:10 pm |
| half price also no takers. deep sh.t |
|
|
|
|
|
Guest
|
|
18 Jul 08 8:35 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | As usual, watch what I said over 9-mths ago:
The previous major resistant was somewhere in 2600-2700 level which was the previous peak in (Yr1994)(Yr1996)(Yr2000)... This resistant has been rise gradually close to 2800. This resistant was broken in end 2006... And only then we saw a suddenly surge in property market in Feb/Mar 07 just after CNY. (just like a turbo spinning to gather its power.. without you knowing it till you have a sudden surge of power in the car once the turbo kicks in)
Since the major resistant was broken, its now become a major support of the whole upswing. So now the STI already entering into a new zone of 28XX to 39XX.
28XX became a major support now & 39XX became a major resistant now. Both will rise gradually & thats why some analysis predicted it will reach 4000 level when its going to try for the 2nd time.
So as long as STI remain above at this major support (around 2800 level)... thats isn't much adjustment to our property market! If later STI started to climb.. you still don't believe.. till above 3500.. 3600 level.. then is too late for you if you still hoping for any correction in property market, even for the next few years.. at least!! |
KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT. FIRST SAY 'RESISTANCE' INSTEAD OF 'RESISTANT'. CORRECT YOUR SPELLINGS. THEN CORRECT THE GRAMMAR. |
Sorry, I'm not good in theory like what followers are good at... but I'm damn good in practical which the Missed the Boat Followers are damn poor at!!  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
