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 25 Jul 08 12:02 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | OVERSUPPLY WORSE THAN EXPECTED?
There is a distinct possibility of lower prices with so many developments set to be completed at the same time
Colin Tan
RECENT arguments against earlier predictions of a private housing oversupply are overblown, and cannot be further from the truth. In fact, those predicting an oversupply are probably understating their case. How bad the market fares will depend on the economy. But, leaving the economic factor aside, demand and supply factors alone dictate that
the market has to correct in a significant way.
But before we go into that, let us examine the construction bottleneck argument. It is claimed, with justification, that this will result in significant delays to future supply. By one industry estimate, only 60 per cent of the 30,000 units forecasted will be completed as scheduled.
But when does completion date matter when new units these days are sold off-plan, even before construction starts? What will impact prices is surely the timing of the sale. Nothing can prevent all 30,000 units from flooding the market within the next 12 months if developers choose to launch. By the same token, nothing can force developers to sell if they don’t want to.
It is easy to forget that there was very little new supply from September last year to May this year. But, in a matter of weeks, this number has probably tripled, or evenquadrupled. A friend with an avid interest in properties remarked to me recently that he will need a few months just to visit all the show units.
And while some have predicted a 30-to-40 per cent price correction for the luxury/upper-tier segment, it is interesting to note that this segment actually saw far fewer launches in the past weeks. So, in the current market, the luxury/upper tier segment actually faces less competition and hence, less pressure to lower prices. However, it does not mean it is in a healthier position, as buying for this segment has dwindled to a trickle.
When does completion actually matter in the housing demand and supply equation? I would say, it is when the market is investor-dominated. When buying is mainly done by owner-occupiers, the moment a unit is sold, it istaken out of the supply equation. Supply gets depleted. This was the situation in the past. We determine whether the market is oversupplied or not by the amount of units left unsold versus potential demand.
But, when the market is investor-dominated, sold units held by investors remain in the supply equation as investors need to sell onward to owner-occupiers or have them tenanted.
By my conservative estimates, more than 50 per cent of the units sold in 2006 to 2007 were bought by investors. This is because the high prevailing prices then were beyond the affordability of most owner-occupiers. This is supported by a recent National University of Singapore study which showed that the affordability of owner-occupiers for private housing has declined significantly in recent years.
Some projects, such as The Sail at Marina Bay, Marina Bay Residences and One Shenton, as well as those on Sentosa island, will most definitely have a higher proportion of investor buyers — as high as 60 to 80 per cent — because there are few of the amenities nearby, such as schools, which are usually desired by owner-occupiers, unless a case can be made out that the majority of units are holiday homes for the super-rich, or are bought by singles. For singles, their level of affordability is even lower.
Between the second quarter of 2006 and third quarter of 2007, developers sold an astounding 22,651 units. This translates to an annual average pace of about 15,100 units, or about double the long-term average absorption rate of about 7,000 to 8,000 units. Conservatively, this means atleast 12,000 “sold” units remain in the supply equation.
When these investor-owned units are completed, someone has to occupy them. If rentals then cannot cover mortgage payments and if owners are highly-geared, they will have to contemplate selling the units sooner or later. If more owners are in the same predicament, thecompetition to sell will result in lower prices.
The writer is head of research at Chesterton International.
From TODAY - July 24, 2008 |
i am the big boss of over 100 workers in a company. today i just announce to all my workers that i am going to cut their pay by 30% to 40% !!! they are shot and ask me why.... ???
I told them, there are bubble in your salary package, same as the property bubble..... since the property price is going to drop by 30% - 40%. next year.. so it is fair to adjust your pay scale 30% - 40% lower.... inorder to reduce the inflation pressure.....  |
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25 Jul 08 12:03 am |
| DIVA and FOLLOWER should deserve a pay cut of 30% - 40% !!! |
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25 Jul 08 2:33 am |
| DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
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25 Jul 08 4:23 am |
| Anonymous wrote: |
i am the big boss of over 100 workers in a company. today i just announce to all my workers that i am going to cut their pay by 30% to 40% !!! they are shot and ask me why.... ???
I told them, there are bubble in your salary package, same as the property bubble..... since the property price is going to drop by 30% - 40%. next year.. so it is fair to adjust your pay scale 30% - 40% lower.... inorder to reduce the inflation pressure..... |
haha jok3r
You do that and your workers quit job.
Then you just close shop.
You sound more like someone who received a pink slip. |
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25 Jul 08 4:59 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
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25 Jul 08 5:03 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
they are like mouse, go to all forums shouting DROP DROP DROP... DOWN DOWN DOWN ....HELP HELP HELP ..... |
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25 Jul 08 5:09 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: |
i am the big boss of over 100 workers in a company. today i just announce to all my workers that i am going to cut their pay by 30% to 40% !!! they are shot and ask me why.... ???
I told them, there are bubble in your salary package, same as the property bubble..... since the property price is going to drop by 30% - 40%. next year.. so it is fair to adjust your pay scale 30% - 40% lower.... inorder to reduce the inflation pressure..... |
haha jok3r
You do that and your workers quit job.
Then you just close shop.
You sound more like someone who received a pink slip. |
for u don't have pay cut of 30%, immediately fire you .....go back home a sleep forever..... |
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25 Jul 08 9:02 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | OVERSUPPLY WORSE THAN EXPECTED?
There is a distinct possibility of lower prices with so many developments set to be completed at the same time
Colin Tan
RECENT arguments against earlier predictions of a private housing oversupply are overblown, and cannot be further from the truth. In fact, those predicting an oversupply are probably understating their case. How bad the market fares will depend on the economy. But, leaving the economic factor aside, demand and supply factors alone dictate that
the market has to correct in a significant way.
But before we go into that, let us examine the construction bottleneck argument. It is claimed, with justification, that this will result in significant delays to future supply. By one industry estimate, only 60 per cent of the 30,000 units forecasted will be completed as scheduled.
But when does completion date matter when new units these days are sold off-plan, even before construction starts? What will impact prices is surely the timing of the sale. Nothing can prevent all 30,000 units from flooding the market within the next 12 months if developers choose to launch. By the same token, nothing can force developers to sell if they don’t want to.
It is easy to forget that there was very little new supply from September last year to May this year. But, in a matter of weeks, this number has probably tripled, or evenquadrupled. A friend with an avid interest in properties remarked to me recently that he will need a few months just to visit all the show units.
And while some have predicted a 30-to-40 per cent price correction for the luxury/upper-tier segment, it is interesting to note that this segment actually saw far fewer launches in the past weeks. So, in the current market, the luxury/upper tier segment actually faces less competition and hence, less pressure to lower prices. However, it does not mean it is in a healthier position, as buying for this segment has dwindled to a trickle.
When does completion actually matter in the housing demand and supply equation? I would say, it is when the market is investor-dominated. When buying is mainly done by owner-occupiers, the moment a unit is sold, it istaken out of the supply equation. Supply gets depleted. This was the situation in the past. We determine whether the market is oversupplied or not by the amount of units left unsold versus potential demand.
But, when the market is investor-dominated, sold units held by investors remain in the supply equation as investors need to sell onward to owner-occupiers or have them tenanted.
By my conservative estimates, more than 50 per cent of the units sold in 2006 to 2007 were bought by investors. This is because the high prevailing prices then were beyond the affordability of most owner-occupiers. This is supported by a recent National University of Singapore study which showed that the affordability of owner-occupiers for private housing has declined significantly in recent years.
Some projects, such as The Sail at Marina Bay, Marina Bay Residences and One Shenton, as well as those on Sentosa island, will most definitely have a higher proportion of investor buyers — as high as 60 to 80 per cent — because there are few of the amenities nearby, such as schools, which are usually desired by owner-occupiers, unless a case can be made out that the majority of units are holiday homes for the super-rich, or are bought by singles. For singles, their level of affordability is even lower.
Between the second quarter of 2006 and third quarter of 2007, developers sold an astounding 22,651 units. This translates to an annual average pace of about 15,100 units, or about double the long-term average absorption rate of about 7,000 to 8,000 units. Conservatively, this means atleast 12,000 “sold” units remain in the supply equation.
When these investor-owned units are completed, someone has to occupy them. If rentals then cannot cover mortgage payments and if owners are highly-geared, they will have to contemplate selling the units sooner or later. If more owners are in the same predicament, thecompetition to sell will result in lower prices.
The writer is head of research at Chesterton International.
From TODAY - July 24, 2008 |
i am the big boss of over 100 workers in a company. today i just announce to all my workers that i am going to cut their pay by 30% to 40% !!! they are shot and ask me why.... ???
I told them, there are bubble in your salary package, same as the property bubble..... since the property price is going to drop by 30% - 40%. next year.. so it is fair to adjust your pay scale 30% - 40% lower.... inorder to reduce the inflation pressure..... |
Then you will be expecting 30$-40% resigning.... & hopefully you have no problem to find replacement with current shortage of workers!!  |
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25 Jul 08 9:14 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
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25 Jul 08 10:12 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
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25 Jul 08 12:02 pm |
DIVA DIVA DIVA.... what a name!
Flippers exposed.... what a shame!
His popularity soars....what acclaim!
Creating imposters.... bcoz of his fame!
Flippers trounced badly...what a game!
Bcoz they didn't heed advice...who to blame?
DIVA DIVA DIVA.....how great the name became!!!
HAIL KING DIVA!!! |
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25 Jul 08 12:36 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
They been renting HDB for all this while... they don't want to buy & continue stay HDB lah!! Still hoping to buy a low low end condo
CONMAN DIVA keep changing his CMI Guru prediction... useless followers cannot tahan rental liao leh!! 5-more-yrs how to tahan!! |
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25 Jul 08 12:57 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | DIVA DIVA DIVA.... what a name!
Flippers exposed.... what a shame!
His popularity soars....what acclaim!
Creating imposters.... bcoz of his fame!
Flippers trounced badly...what a game!
Bcoz they didn't heed advice...who to blame?
DIVA DIVA DIVA.....how great the name became!!!
HAIL KING DIVA!!! |
Long Live The King |
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25 Jul 08 8:38 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
They been renting HDB for all this while... they don't want to buy & continue stay HDB lah!! Still hoping to buy a low low end condo
CONMAN DIVA keep changing his CMI Guru prediction... useless followers cannot tahan rental liao leh!! 5-more-yrs how to tahan!! |
after more than 1 year of crashing property stories by DIVA big time miss the boat and FOLLOWER... property price still holding up strongly.... at the end of the day DIVA lan lan still cannot afford to buy and low end HDB flat.... just renting only....competing with all foreigner... |
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25 Jul 08 9:40 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
They been renting HDB for all this while... they don't want to buy & continue stay HDB lah!! Still hoping to buy a low low end condo
CONMAN DIVA keep changing his CMI Guru prediction... useless followers cannot tahan rental liao leh!! 5-more-yrs how to tahan!! |
after more than 1 year of crashing property stories by DIVA big time miss the boat and FOLLOWER... property price still holding up strongly.... at the end of the day DIVA lan lan still cannot afford to buy and low end HDB flat.... just renting only....competing with all foreigner... |
right we need the long live king to support our renting market forever.... |
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25 Jul 08 10:13 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
They been renting HDB for all this while... they don't want to buy & continue stay HDB lah!! Still hoping to buy a low low end condo
CONMAN DIVA keep changing his CMI Guru prediction... useless followers cannot tahan rental liao leh!! 5-more-yrs how to tahan!! |
after more than 1 year of crashing property stories by DIVA big time miss the boat and FOLLOWER... property price still holding up strongly.... at the end of the day DIVA lan lan still cannot afford to buy and low end HDB flat.... just renting only....competing with all foreigner... |
right we need the long live king to support our renting market forever.... |
Don't worry Diva will continue to say market will fall and ask people to sell. You can rent ... to them losers forever. |
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25 Jul 08 11:28 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
They been renting HDB for all this while... they don't want to buy & continue stay HDB lah!! Still hoping to buy a low low end condo
CONMAN DIVA keep changing his CMI Guru prediction... useless followers cannot tahan rental liao leh!! 5-more-yrs how to tahan!! |
after more than 1 year of crashing property stories by DIVA big time miss the boat and FOLLOWER... property price still holding up strongly.... at the end of the day DIVA lan lan still cannot afford to buy and low end HDB flat.... just renting only....competing with all foreigner... |
right we need the long live king to support our renting market forever.... |
Don't worry Diva will continue to say market will fall and ask people to sell. You can rent ... to them losers forever. |
the MAD DOG DIVA will continue barking for at least 5 more years, when he find his dream home then you will see MAD DOG DIVA stop barking..... |
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25 Jul 08 11:32 pm |
Property price can only go up from here.
Good time to invest. Dont wait any longer..
Buy before hungry ghost arrives. |
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28 Jul 08 12:27 am |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | DIVA BIG TIME MISS THE BOAT and FOLLOWER are poor ppl, can't even aford to buy a HDB flat... give them a chance... we should give them a pay rise of 50%.. |
u mean DIVA can't even afford a HDB ??? then why are they here in the buy & Sell : private apartment / condominium forum ? |
They are in this forum just to talk kok... they are in this forum dreaming of buying a low low end condo.. just that after talking BIG BIG for 1-yr still haven't come to their turn!! |
They are here to pray that they can buy their high end HDB. |
They been renting HDB for all this while... they don't want to buy & continue stay HDB lah!! Still hoping to buy a low low end condo
CONMAN DIVA keep changing his CMI Guru prediction... useless followers cannot tahan rental liao leh!! 5-more-yrs how to tahan!! |
after more than 1 year of crashing property stories by DIVA big time miss the boat and FOLLOWER... property price still holding up strongly.... at the end of the day DIVA lan lan still cannot afford to buy and low end HDB flat.... just renting only....competing with all foreigner... |
right we need the long live king to support our renting market forever.... |
Don't worry Diva will continue to say market will fall and ask people to sell. You can rent ... to them losers forever. |
the MAD DOG DIVA will continue barking for at least 5 more years, when he find his dream home then you will see MAD DOG DIVA stop barking..... |
i can foresee another cut and paste from newspaper by diva tomorrow....DIVA and followers are slower and losser...only know C&P.... |
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