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Guest
on 24 Feb 08 2:44 am
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Japan Cuts Economic View for First Time in 15 Months (Update1)
By Keiko Ujikane
Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's government lowered its assessment of the economy for the first time in 15 months, saying growth will moderate as exports and production cool.
``The economy is recovering at a moderate pace recently,'' the Cabinet Office said today in its monthly economic report for February. In January, the government said ``the economy is recovering, while some weaknesses are seen.''
Reports in the past month have showed the nation's longest postwar expansion is cooling after growth accelerated in the fourth quarter. Industrial production rose less than economists estimated in December, and exports to the U.S., Japan's largest market, fell for a fifth month in January.
``We need to consider the possibility that Japan may enter a lull in the economy,'' though it's unlikely for now, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said at a press conference in Tokyo today. ``We need to watch developments in the U.S. economy,'' the epicenter of turmoil in the world's financial markets, which is leading a global slowdown.
The Cabinet Office lowered its assessment of output for the first time in eight months, saying it's ``growing at a slower pace,'' after describing it as ``increasing moderately.''
Production rose 1.4 percent in December, less than the 2 percent increase forecast by economists. Manufacturers surveyed said they plan to cut spending in January and February.
The government also cut its evaluation of exports for the first time since September 2006, saying they're increasing ``moderately'' even after a report yesterday showed growth in shipments accelerated in January.
Exports to the U.S. declined 3.2 percent in January, while overall shipments grew 7.7 percent, supported by demand in Asia and Europe, a government report showed yesterday.
Waning U.S. Demand
Waning demand in the U.S., the world's biggest economy, will eventually take its toll on the emerging markets where Japan ships about half its goods, Ota said last week.
The government also lowered its assessment of the global economy, including the U.S. and the euro region.
``Attention should be paid to downside risks'' resulting from the slowing U.S. economy, turmoil in financial markets and rising oil prices, the government said.
The Bank of Japan said last week in its monthly report that growth is slowing temporarily and lowered its assessment of the global economy. It cut its evaluation of Japan's economy in December, the first reduction in three years.
The last time the government became more pessimistic about the economy was in November 2006, when it said there was ``some weakness in consumption.'' Household spending fell every month that year. |
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Guest
on 24 Feb 08 8:57 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | hi guys,
i feel that i have opened my eyes when i read this topic...thanks for such an interesting topic...
anyway, as a newbie, may i ask you guys how to find information about how to buy a condo, how to apply for bank loan etc ...?
i meant, i believe that the price is going to go up, so i think about buying 1 condo apartment but i don't have that much cash...
so i'd like to know about the process of applying for bank loan (get how many percent, how much is the installment per month/year, what is the best bank to apply for loan) ...
is there any website that i can find out those details?
thank you,
David |
hello David,
Parc Emily RARE 1 bed room with patio selling at ONLY $1280psf, contact owner 98305297 |
Please do not call me anymore, i am not selling now, thanks for all those interested parties.  |
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Guest
on 25 Feb 08 8:34 am
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | hi guys,
i feel that i have opened my eyes when i read this topic...thanks for such an interesting topic...
anyway, as a newbie, may i ask you guys how to find information about how to buy a condo, how to apply for bank loan etc ...?
i meant, i believe that the price is going to go up, so i think about buying 1 condo apartment but i don't have that much cash...
so i'd like to know about the process of applying for bank loan (get how many percent, how much is the installment per month/year, what is the best bank to apply for loan) ...
is there any website that i can find out those details?
thank you,
David |
hello David,
Parc Emily RARE 1 bed room with patio selling at ONLY $1280psf, contact owner 98305297 |
Please do not call me anymore, i am not selling now, thanks for all those interested parties. |
Correct this is right choice, the future is bright, alot more growth in future |
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Guest
on 25 Feb 08 1:15 pm
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| Correct what?? If a person does not have much $$$ CASH, how to flip?? Burnt your hand then you know correct. Yes, is good $$ when pty is good but u won't know when it falls.... |
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Guest
on 25 Feb 08 5:37 pm
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If you look at the URA caveat data carefully, you will realise that the number of caveats lodged for Feb 08 is 9 (yes single digit 9). In Dec 07 there were 764 while in Jan 08 there were 425. Volume is decreasing because buying demand has dropped. The laws of supply and demand are pretty straight-forward - when demand drops, prices go down. And we are indeed seeing a drop of between 5% to 10% for the high-end properties within a span of two to three months.
To the flippers and speculators, it is a worrying trend, especially for those without holding power. If the majority of these folks are in the game without adequate firepower, we will see some damage done to the prices of the high-end properties since this group made up 20% to 30% of all property purchasers last year.
If you are a flipper and the TOP for the project you have on-hand is within the next two months, and you do not have the means to pay for the property, you better let it go now at a reasonable price. The economy outlook for the next few months is not going to be any better than it is right now and the property market will be lacklustre. The longer you hold on, the less you will be able to "earn" from your flip. Remember that greed causes the downfall of man. |
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Guest
on 25 Feb 08 7:23 pm
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Now is still in the month of Feb... how to see Feb caveats lodged for this month hah??
Yes! Demand has dropped with price sustainable.. thats because buyers not buying & sellers also not hardup of selling if they can't get the price they want!
As long as the STI staying above the major support of 28XX level.. there isn't be much downside correction in the residential properties! |
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Guest
on 25 Feb 08 8:16 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | Now is still in the month of Feb... how to see Feb caveats lodged for this month hah??
Yes! Demand has dropped with price sustainable.. thats because buyers not buying & sellers also not hardup of selling if they can't get the price they want!
As long as the STI staying above the major support of 28XX level.. there isn't be much downside correction in the residential properties! |
Feb as at todate. Whatever it is, demand is definitely lower. One won't know what happen next, urging buyers spend within your mean. |
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Guest
on 25 Feb 08 11:12 pm
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inflation reaches 25 years high at 6.6% !!! cost of living and high property price are the main concern in this new economy.. there is no U turn for property price to go back to the begining of 2007 level, the basic raw material, labour, and basically all cost of living in singapore has increased, but it is still well below as compare to our neighbouring countries such as hongkong and shanghai and others major cities of China.....
How can we stop inflation ? how can stop the increase of living cost ? There isn't any ways, we only can move forward, no backward...we can control the pace of economy moving slowly forward..... there is no SLEEP or SHUTDOWN button to stop the singapore economy growth at the current stage. |
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Guest
on 26 Feb 08 10:05 am
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Greenspan Says U.S. Recession May Be Deeper Than Last (Update2)
By Anthony Massucci and Matthew Brown
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a possible recession in the U.S. this year may be deeper than the last two contractions.
``The existing financial problems are deeper than we've had for a while, so I wouldn't be surprised if this recession is deeper than the last two shallow recessions,'' Greenspan said at a conference today in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Over the past year, Greenspan has gone from seeing a one-in- three chance of a recession to an estimate of ``50 percent or better.'' Wall Street firms including Merrill Lynch & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are forecasting the first contraction since 2001. The last two downturns lasted about eight months.
``We're at stall speed,'' the 81-year-old former Fed chief said today. ``When you're at stall speed, anything that goes wrong takes you lower.''
The proportion of economists who forecast a U.S. recession this year more than doubled over the last three months, to 45 percent, according to a survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics.
The Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate between banks to 2.5 percent this year, from the current 3 percent, according to the NABE survey median.
Growth in emerging economies will continue to outstrip that of the U.S., while their currencies will also appreciate against the dollar, Greenspan said. He also urged nations in the Persian Gulf to move toward letting markets set exchange rates.
Dollar's Primacy
``We have enough liquidity in the world to support more than one major currency,'' he said. ``I doubt the dollar will fall from number one.''
At the same time, he said at a separate conference later in the day that private holdings of euros may exceed those of dollars in the next five to 10 years. ``I imagine that is what will happen,'' Greenspan said.
Referring to Persian Gulf countries, he said ``letting the currency float is probably the best way to stop the flow of foreign exchange into the economy and cause inflation.''
Globally, sovereign wealth funds ``on balance'' have done a ``good job,'' and any restrictions would be a ``very bad idea,'' the former Fed chief said. The funds have increasingly bought stakes in U.S. and European banks in the aftermath of the subprime crisis.
He said it was ``worrying'' that China and other nations are using price controls on food and energy products to limit inflation.
U.S. Home Prices
Greenspan also said home prices in the U.S. will ``continue to fall'' and the housing slump is having a ``broader effect'' on consumer spending. He added that oil prices, which surpassed a record $100 a barrel last week, will keep rising.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Greenspan's successor, earlier this month warned that policy will have to be ``calibrated'' over the next year to meet both inflation and growth objectives.
Bernanke is scheduled to before Congress Feb. 27-28 on the central bank's semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.
``I try to avoid commenting on my successor because he has enough problems,'' Greenspan said today.
Greenspan criticized Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama for taking ``anti-competitive'' policy stances. ``It is conceivable that Barack Obama would forget many of the positions he has taken once he is in office, which are very troubling and anti-competitive,'' Greenspan said. He didn't specify any particular policies.
Greenspan left the Fed in January 2006 after almost two decades at the helm. He has returned to his role as a private economic forecaster, speaking at conferences and to groups of bankers and investors, while consulting for clients such as Deutsche Bank AG |
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Guest
on 26 Feb 08 2:28 pm
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This Greenspan useless lah!! I already see him no up long time ago!!
He is just like followers... things happened already... then come & talk like expert!! |
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Guest
on 26 Feb 08 5:09 pm
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everyone also know how to talk about recession, how to resolve the sub-prime issue ?? let me tell u, after the US election, more new policies will be implement to attract more foreiginer, China, south east asia ppl, open up the immigration door especially the rich to migrate, invest and stay for long....  watch out what i say... |
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Guest
on 26 Feb 08 7:04 pm
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No arguing about it, US recession is 'already here'It'll be over by end of 2008 but initial recovery mild, says Lehman strategist
By SIOW LI SEN
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(SINGAPORE) The United States recession is already here, though some economists still argue about it, said Jack Malvey, Lehman Brothers chief global fixed income strategist. But it's really not that bad, and certainly not the end of the world.
The good news is that the credit recession of 2007-2008 will be resolved by the end of this year.
The bad news? The recovery will be mild, at least initially, said New York-based Mr Malvey who was in town last week.
Since 1945, recessions have occurred about every five years and averaged 9-10 months, said Mr Malvey.
In the US, what began as the sub-prime crisis last June - and which has now spread to other sectors of the economy - has created widespread negative sentiment.
'2009 will be ... a slow growth, slowly healing US economy. So (we'll be) out of technical recession possibly before the end of this year ... moving into a sort of extended healing process.'
- Jack Malvey,
Lehman Brothers chief global fixed income strategist
And the popular media has capitalised on this, said Mr Malvey who met with reporters last Friday.
Since the beginning of 2008, he noted, some of the programmes on cable TV have included specials on the Black Death of 1346-1348 and its possible re-occurrence, the fate of the Earth once all humans are gone, the catastrophic effect of a mega-methane eruption from the floor of the Pacific Ocean and life-ending gamma rays from the detonation of a nearby supernova.
The US recession will over by end-2008, with slow recovery next year and clear blue skies in 2010, said Mr Malvey.
'I think that the US recession will be over (by end-2008) to the degree that actually we have found to be in recession. Fiscal stimulus puts money in the hands of consumers in the third quarter, monetary policy will have been accommodative for a year as of September 18, 2008,' he said.
The US Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates last September in response to the credit freeze and, more recently, the United States Congress has approved a US$152 billion stimulus plan to rescue the ailing US economy.
'The uncertainties of certain aspects of this credit recession will be resolved, we'll know the fate of the monolines (insurers) for example, CDOs (collateralised debt obligations) write-offs will mercifully have petered out, so I think a lot of elements will contribute to a resurrection in terms of the US economy,' said Mr Malvey.
But it will be a slow recovery, U-shaped rather than V-shaped, he said.
'2009 will be ... a slow growth, slowly healing US economy. So (we'll be) out of technical recession possibly before the end of this year .... moving into a sort of extended healing process.
'It's probably 2010 before we have clear blue skies again in the US and because these things move in different velocities around the world, maybe some regional economies start their recessions, slow down a little later and may heal a little later, maybe they're still in recovery mode in 2010,' he said.
He was most optimistic about Asia where he said the average growth will exceed that of the US, Europe and Latin America.
Japan is the most at risk, being the Asian economy closest to the US, according to Mr Malvey. He said that Japan has 40 per cent risk of succumbing to recession at the end of 2008.
'Other parts of Asia, we do not see high risk of succumbing to outright recession in the course of this year and next,' he said. |
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Guest
on 26 Feb 08 7:13 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | This Greenspan useless lah!! I already see him no up long time ago!!
He is just like followers... things happened already... then come & talk like expert!! |
US economy at standstill: Greenspan
(JEDDAH) US economic growth has stalled and the longer it stays at zero, the more likely the world's largest economy will start to contract, former US Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said yesterday.
MrGreenspan: 'As of right now, US economic growth is at zero. We are at stall speed.'
'As of right now, US economic growth is at zero,' Mr Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. 'We are at stall speed.'
In updated economic forecasts released last week, the US central bank lowered its outlook for 2008 growth by a half point to between 1.3 per cent and 2 per cent, citing the prolonged housing slump and bottlenecks in credit markets. The oil boom will 'go on forever', Mr Greenspan said |
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Guest
on 26 Feb 08 7:25 pm
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Aiyo.. at this moment, why still argue whether is recession or not.
To me whether is 51/100 or 49/100 is not much a different. To most ppl, 51 is pass & 49 is fail. Ppl are just arguing whether is a pass or a fail thats all!
What is important to me is looking further ahead of when the recovery will take place?... how fast the recovery will take?
Eventhrough US is in bad shape now.. but in fact, I'm really preparing for the next "take-off"..! |
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Guest
on 27 Feb 08 4:05 pm
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| with all this turmoil going on... property investment is still the best BET in long term... |
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Guest
on 27 Feb 08 8:07 pm
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When come to turmoil, young kok will just follow behind the market thinking is end of the world....
Lau Ciao will stay calm & look beyond the market for any good opportunity before the market turn around.
That is the different between young kok & lau ciao.  |
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Guest
on 27 Feb 08 8:42 pm
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So those keep following behind news & keep doing "cut & paste" is young kok or lau ciao hah??
I know the answer... don't tell you!! |
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Guest
on 27 Feb 08 9:10 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | So those keep following behind news & keep doing "cut & paste" is young kok or lau ciao hah??
I know the answer... don't tell you!! |
Kohn Says Slower Growth `Greater Threat' Than Prices
By Craig Torres
(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said turmoil in credit markets and the possibility of even slower economic growth pose a ``greater threat'' than inflation.
``I do not expect the recent elevated inflation rates to persist,'' Kohn said in a speech to the University of North Carolina, Wilmington. ``The adverse dynamics of the financial markets and the economy have presented the greater threat to economic welfare in the United States.''
Kohn spoke after economic reports today showed consumer confidence fell to the weakest level in five years while wholesale inflation accelerated. His remarks, a day before Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivers semiannual testimony on the economy before Congress, indicate officials are prepared to keep lowering interest rates.
Policy makers will be ``weighing carefully'' in coming months whether the Fed has done enough to cushion the U.S. against ``very adverse economic outcomes,'' Kohn said. ``We will do what is needed'' to help growth and keep consumer prices stable, he said.
Fed officials have tried to offset some of the impact of the worst housing recession in a quarter century by lowering the benchmark interest rate 2.25 percentage points since September. The Federal Open Market Committee cut the benchmark lending rate to 3 percent Jan. 30. Fed officials next meet March 18.
`Coin Flip'
St. Louis Fed President William Poole said separately today that inflation is ``higher than every member of the FOMC would like.'' At the same time, he estimated the odds of a recession as close to ``a coin flip.'' He made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg Television in St. Louis before his retirement next month.
Treasury notes rallied today after the slide in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, with 10-year yields dropping to 3.85 percent from 3.90 percent late yesterday.
Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow at 10 a.m. in Washington. Democratic Representative Barney Frank, who chairs the panel, reiterated his criticism of the Fed today for failing to regulate the mortgage market sufficiently to head off the ensuing bust.
``The single greatest cause of the current economic crisis'' is regulatory failure, Frank said at a hearing today with economists before tomorrow's session. He blamed Bernanke's predecessor Alan Greenspan for the lapse. ``In the absence of regulatory policy you give monetary policy too heavy a lift,'' he also said.
Officials Differ
The two dynamics, slowing growth and accelerating inflation, may have caused part of the divergence among officials last month on setting the rate for direct loans to banks. Four district-bank boards asked for a half-point cut in the so-called discount rate, two requested a quarter-point and four wanted no change, minutes of the discussions showed today.
The Fed Board lowered the rate by three-quarters of a point Jan. 22 then a further half-point to 3.5 percent on Jan. 30.
``Decisions of policy makers must take account of not only the most likely course of the economy, but also the possibility of very unfavorable developments,'' said Kohn, who as a Fed governor has a permanent vote on the FOMC.
`A Little Easier'
``Doing so should reduce the odds of an especially adverse outcome not only by having policy a little easier than otherwise, but also by assuring lenders and spenders that the central bank recognizes such a possibility.''
Lower interest rates can't stop, ``only cushion the correction in housing markets,'' Kohn said.
Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell in January to the lowest levels since records began nine years ago and prices slid for the sixth time in seven months, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors Monday.
Foreclosures are adding to the glut of supply, and suppressing prices. The number of homes for sale at the end of January rose to 4.2 million, or about 10.3 months supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price fell 4.6 percent to $201,000 from January 2007.
``The decline in residential investment should begin to abate later this year,'' the Fed vice chairman also said.
Kohn called recent inflation data ``disappointing,'' and cited signs that energy costs and surging commodity prices ``may be passing through a bit to core consumer prices.''
Producer Prices
Prices paid to U.S. producers rose 1 percent in January, more than twice as much as forecast, pushed up by higher fuel, food and drug costs, the Labor Department said today. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.4 percent.
Consumer prices last month rose a greater-than-forecast 0.4 percent for a second month, Labor figures showed on Feb. 20.
``I expect the run-up in headline inflation to be reversed and core inflation to edge lower in the next few years,'' Kohn said, referring to price benchmarks with and without food and energy.
Futures traders expect the Fed to cut another half-point in March, which would reduce the benchmark rate to 2.5 percent, or nearly zero, subtracting the 2.2 rise in inflation minus food and energy for the 12 months ending January. |
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Guest
on 27 Feb 08 9:12 pm
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Now I can tell you... young kok is just above me!!  |
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Guest
on 27 Feb 08 9:40 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Now I can tell you... young kok is just above me!! |
EU Fines Microsoft Record $1.3 Billion for Charging Rivals Too Much for Software Information
BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- The European Union fined Microsoft Corp. a record $1.3 billion Wednesday for the amount it charges rivals for software information.
EU regulators said the company charged "unreasonable prices" until last October to software developers who wanted to make products compatible with the Windows desktop operating system.
The fine is the largest ever for a single company and brings to just under $2.5 billion the amount the EU has demanded Microsoft pay in a long-running antitrust dispute.
Microsoft immediately said the issues for which it was fined have been resolved and the company was making its products more open.
The fine comes less that a week after Microsoft said it would share more information about its products and technology in an effort to make it work better with rivals' software and meet the demands of antitrust regulators in Europe.
But EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes remained skeptical and said Microsoft was under investigation in two additional cases.
"Talk is cheap," Kroes said. "Flouting the rules is expensive."
Microsoft's actions have stifled innovation and affected millions of people around the world, Kroes said. She called the record 899 million euro fine "a reasonable response to a series of quite unreasonable actions."
"We could have gone as high as 1.5 billion euros ($2.23 billion)," she said. "The maximum amount is higher than what we did at the end of the day."
Microsoft fought hard against a March 2004 decision that led to a 497 million euro ($613 million) fine and an order that the software maker share interoperability information with rivals within 120 days. The company lost its appeal in that case in September.
Microsoft was fined $357 million in July 2006 for failing to obey that order.
The EU alleged that Microsoft withheld crucial interoperability information for desktop PC software -- where it is the world's leading supplier -- in an effort squeeze into a new market and damage rivals.
The company delayed compliance for three years, the EU said, only making changes in October to the patent licenses for companies that need data to create software that works with Microsoft.
Microsoft had initially set a royalty rate of 3.87 percent of a licensee's product revenues for patents and demanded that companies looking for communication information -- which it said was highly secret -- pay 2.98 percent of their products' revenues.
The EU complained last March that the rates were unfair. Under threat of fines, Microsoft two months later reduced the patent rate to 0.7 percent and the information license to 0.5 percent -- but only in Europe, leaving the worldwide rates unchanged.
The EU's Court of First Instance ruling that upheld regulators' views changed the company's mind again in October when it offered a new license for interoperability information for a flat fee of 10,000 euros ($14,900) and an optional worldwide patent license for a reduced royalty of 0.4 percent. |
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