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 27 Feb 08 10:17 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | The above one is super young kok!!  |
Big-Ticket Orders Down 5.3 Percent
Wednesday February 27, 8:53 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Orders for Big-Ticket Manufactured Goods Plunge by the Largest Amount in 5 Months
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in January by the largest amount in five months as manufacturers got caught in the weakness engulfing the rest of the economy.
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The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new orders dropped by 5.3 percent last month, reflecting declines across a wide swath of industry from commercial aircraft and autos to heavy machinery and computers.
The worse-than-expected decline was the latest in a string of reports indicating that the economy, battered by a prolonged slump in housing, a serious credit squeeze and soaring energy prices, is in danger of toppling into a recession.
A growing number of analysts believe the economy will slip into a recession this quarter although they expect the downturn to be short and mild, thanks to aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a $168 billion economic stimulus package passed by Congress earlier this month. Millions of households will begin seeing rebate checks in May that should give the economy a boost starting this summer.
The 5.3 percent decline in durable goods for January was the first setback since October and was the biggest decline since a similar 5.3 percent drop last August.
The weakness was led by a 13.4 percent decrease in orders for transportation equipment, which reflected a 30.5 percent plunge in demand for commercial aircraft, a very volatile category, and a 0.8 percent fall in demand for motor vehicles and parts. It was the second straight drop in autos and underscored the problems facing domestic automakers as they struggle with weak demand in the face of surging gasoline prices and plunging consumer confidence.
The overall economy skidded to a barely discernible growth rate of 0.6 percent in the final three months of last year and many analysts believe that the gross domestic product may turn negative in the current quarter and the second quarter this year, meeting the classic definition of a recession as consumers, whose confidence levels have plunged to the lowest levels in five years, cut back on spending.
Also of concern is what the weakness in the consumer sector will do to business confidence. The new durable goods report showed that a key indicator of business investment dropped in January by the largest amount in three months. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a good proxy for business investment, fell by 1.4 percent last month.
In other signs of weakness, orders for machinery were down 1.4 percent, orders for computers plunged by 11.7 percent and orders for fabricated metals fell by 4.1 percent. |
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27 Feb 08 10:42 pm |
| Oh! Young kok again!! |
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27 Feb 08 10:52 pm |
For our STI....
The previous major resistant was somewhere during 26XX(Yr1994), 27XX(Yr1996), 27XX(Yr2000)... This resistant has been rise gradually for till now is about 28XX. This resistant was broken in end of 2006... And only then we saw a suddenly surge in property market in Feb/Mar 07 just after CNY. (just like a turbo spinning to gather its power.. without you knowing it till you have a sudden surge of power in the car once the turbo kicks in)
Since the major resistant was broken, its now become a major support of the whole upswing. So now the STI already entering into a new zone of 28XX to 39XX.
28XX became a major support now & 39XX became a major resistant now. Both will rise gradually & thats why some analysis predicted it will reach 4000 level.
So as long as STI remain above at this major support... thats isn't much adjustment to our property market! If later STI started to climb.. you still don't believe.. till above 3500.. 3600 level.. then is too late for you if you still hoping for any correction in property market, even for the next few years.. at least!! |
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27 Feb 08 11:42 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | Oh! Young kok again!! |
Fed Chief Signals Another Rate Cut
Wednesday February 27, 10:38 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Chief Bernanke Warns of Sluggish Economic Growth and Signals Another Rate Cut
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress Wednesday of a period of sluggish business growth, sending a fresh signal of another cut in interest rates.
"The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable" since the summer, Bernanke testified. Since his previous such assessment last summer, the housing slump has worsened(AP) -- , credit problems have intensified and the job market has deteriorated. Bernanke said the confluence of these factors has turned people and businesses alike toward a more cautious attitude toward spending and investment. This, he said, has further weakened the economy.
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Incoming barometers continue to "suggest sluggish economic activity in the near term," Bernanke said in an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee. At the same time, he added, the Fed must keep a close eye on inflation given the recent run-up in energy and other prices paid by consumers and businesses.
For now though, the No. 1 battle is shoring up the economy. And Bernanke pledged anew to slice a key interest rate to steady the wobbly economy, which many fear is on the verge of a recession -- or possibly has already toppled into one.
The Fed "will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks," Bernanke said, hewing closely to assurances he offered earlier this month.
The central bank, which started lowering a key interest rate in September, has recently turned much more aggressive. Over the span of just eight days in January, it slashed rates by 1.25 percentage points -- the biggest one-month reduction in a quarter century. Economists and Wall Street investors predict the Fed will cut rates again at its next meeting on March 18.
There are dangers that the economy will weaken even further. "The risks include the possibilities that the housing market or labor market may deteriorate more than is currently anticipated and that credit conditions may tighten substantially further," Bernanke cautioned.
The Fed chief was hopeful that previous rate reductions along with a $168 billion stimulus package of tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business will energize the economy in the second half of this year.
Even as the Fed tries to shore up the economy, it must remain mindful of inflation pressures, Bernanke said.
Record high oil prices -- topping $100 a barrel -- are pushing consumer prices upward. That's shrinking paychecks, and with people feeling less well off because the values of their homes have dropped, consumer spending "slowed significantly" toward the end of the year, the Fed chief said.
The Fed forecasts that inflation will moderate this year compared with last year. But the Fed's recently revised inflation projection of an increase between 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent is higher than its old forecast from the fall.
Bernanke said there are "slightly greater upside risks" that inflation could turn out to be higher than the Fed currently anticipates, given the recent run-up in energy and food prices.
"Should high rates of overall inflation persist, the possibility also exists that inflation expectations could become less well anchored," Bernanke warned. If people, companies and investors think inflation will move higher, they will act in ways that could turn inflation even worse, a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. And Bernanke said that could complicate the Fed's job of trying to nurture economic growth while also keeping inflation under control.
With the economy slowing and prices rising, fears are growing that the country could be headed for a bout of stagflation, a dangerous economic brew not seen since the 1970s.
The Fed for now is focused on bolstering the economy through interest rate reductions. To combat inflation, the Fed would raise rates.
At some point over the course of this year, the Fed will need to "assess whether the stance of monetary policy is properly calibrated" to foster the Fed's objectives of price stability "in an environment of downside risks to growth," Bernanke said. |
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28 Feb 08 4:52 pm |
i though UNCLE, FOLLOWER, MISS THE BOAT already gone MIA for quite some time, now "YOUNG KOK" start to appear.... property and stock market is not the cup of coffee for you.... do what you are best in ok "CUT and PASTE" file it in an album and pass it to the next generation.....alot of ppl make money in property, don't mean you can...  |
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28 Feb 08 5:10 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | i though UNCLE, FOLLOWER, MISS THE BOAT already gone MIA for quite some time, now "YOUNG KOK" start to appear.... property and stock market is not the cup of coffee for you.... do what you are best in ok "CUT and PASTE" file it in an album and pass it to the next generation.....alot of ppl make money in property, don't mean you can... |
Bernanke Readiness to Reduce Rates Stokes Inflation Concerns
By Scott Lanman and Steve Matthews
Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's readiness to cut interest rates to avert a recession is stoking concerns that prices will get out of hand.
``Bernanke has really overweighted the economic risks relative to inflation,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, following the Fed chief's testimony to Congress yesterday. ``He may get some disagreement'' among colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, Silvia said.
Investors' expectations for inflation over the next 10 years jumped to the highest since June after Bernanke pledged to the House Financial Services Committee to act in a ``timely manner'' to combat ``downside risks'' to growth. A day after government figures showed wholesale costs rose 7.4 percent in January from a year ago, Bernanke said the price outlook has deteriorated ``slightly.''
``They will keep cutting,'' said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Reinsurance Co. in New York. ``If inflation looks like it is taking off quite rapidly, or inflation expectations take off, they will have to backtrack.''
The FOMC last month lowered the benchmark rate by 1.25 percentage points in nine days, the steepest reduction in two decades, to 3 percent. The two decisions each saw one dissenting vote on the Fed panel.
`Prime Risk'
Rising consumer prices, the ``classic bond worry,'' may start exceeding concerns about the stresses in credit markets, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s fixed-income strategy team said in a note to clients yesterday. ``We'd nominate the unmooring'' of inflation expectations ``as a prime risk for 2009-2010,'' they wrote.
Representative Gary Miller, a California Republican, told Bernanke that with continued high oil prices, ``it may be more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates,'' and he asked the Fed chief about his other options besides lowering rates.
``We do face a difficult situation,'' Bernanke acknowledged. Oil and food prices have been climbing ``rapidly,'' and there are ``slightly greater upside risks to the projections'' for inflation now than a month ago.
The Fed chief goes to the Senate Banking Committee today in the second day of semiannual testimony on the economy. The hearing is scheduled for 10 a.m. in Washington.
Consumer prices last year surged 4.1 percent, the most in 17 years, spurred by higher fuel and food costs. Labor Department figures this week showed the biggest 12-month increase in wholesale costs since 1981 in January.
Yields Climb
Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 3.85 percent yesterday from their January low of 3.29 percent. Inflation expectations as measured by the difference in yield between regular 10-year notes and 10-year Treasuries linked to consumer prices reached 2.56 percent after Bernanke spoke, the highest since June.
Barclays Capital Inc. is advising its clients to buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS.
``We don't expect slower growth in the U.S. is going to slow down inflation pressure,'' Michael Pond, an interest-rate strategist at Barclays in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday.
Consumers' forecasts are also heading up. Households' estimate of price increases one year ahead reached 3.7 percent this month, the highest since August 2006, according to a gauge published by the University of Michigan.
Fed Forecasts
Bernanke told lawmakers the Fed anticipates inflation will slow, in part because of ``sluggish'' economic growth and rising unemployment. In their quarterly forecasts published this month, central bankers projected prices, excluding food and energy, will rise 2 percent to 2.2 percent this year, slowing to a 1.7 percent to 2 percent pace in 2009.
Traders see a 100 percent chance that the FOMC will lower the target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a half-point, to 2.5 percent. Officials have cut the rate by 2.25 percentage points since September.
``If you move aggressively to cut interest rates and stimulate the economy, then you risk fueling inflation,'' Democratic Representative Greg Meeks of New York said at yesterday's hearing.
Bernanke's testimony came a day after Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said turmoil in credit markets and the possibility of even slower growth pose a ``greater threat'' than inflation.
Unlike recent remarks by other Fed officials and minutes of the last policy meeting, Bernanke made no mention of needing to raise rates once the economy stabilizes.
`Rapid Reversal'
At the Jan. 29-30 FOMC meeting, some policy makers ``noted that, when prospects for growth had improved, a reversal of a portion of the recent easing actions, possibly even a rapid reversal, might be appropriate.''
Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin, who has collaborated with Bernanke on research, said Feb. 15 the Fed ``should be prepared to take back the insurance'' from rate cuts ``once the recovery becomes clearly established.''
Yesterday, Bernanke reiterated that the Fed's stance ``must be determined in light of the medium-term forecast for real activity and inflation as well as the risks to that forecast.''
``He's really telling you that he's going to do what it takes,'' James Caron, global head of interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``The Fed believes it's a fluent situation, and Bernanke will cut rates as he deems fit.'' |
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28 Feb 08 8:58 pm |
dont look down on "YOUNG KOK" they are the support of the future singapore property market....  |
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28 Feb 08 9:22 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | | dont look down on "YOUNG KOK" they are the support of the future singapore property market.... |
Wall Street Heads for Lower Opening
Thursday February 28, 8:16 am ET
By Leslie Wines, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Poised for Losses at Opening Ahead of GDP, Weekly Claims Reports
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street headed for a lower opening Thursday as investors awaited reports on weekly jobless claims and fourth-quarter economic growth that they hope will provide clues about the direction of the economy.
The preliminary fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product, which measures the pace of economic growth or decline, and the latest tally on weekly jobless claims are both due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
Fourth-quarter GDP is projected to show a rise of 0.7 percent, according to a median estimate of analysts polled by Thomson/IFR. That would be an improvement over the 0.6 percent gain seen in the third quarter of 2007, but would still be a weak pace of growth by recent historical standards.
Investors are concerned about the possibility that the economy is continuing to slow while prices rise, a condition known as stagflation. Those concerns have only heightened the importance of the GDP number.
The number of workers applying for first-time out-of-work claims is expected to increase by 1,000 to 350,000, according to Thomson/IFR. Weekly jobless claims are usually a volatile piece of data, but investors are tracking them carefully these days because there are worries that the labor market may be shrinking.
The futures contract for the Dow Jones industrial average fell 41 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,652. Futures contracts for the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 7.40 points, or 0.5 percent, to 1,373. and the Nasdaq 100 gave up 3.2 points, or 0.5 percent, to 1,797.
Oil futures were on the rise, last trading up 43 cents at $100.07 a barrel, after breaking through $102 for the first time Wednesday. Treasurys rose, pushing yields lower. The benchmark 10-year note's yield dropped to 3.80 percent from 3.85 percent.
The stock market this week has been barraged by a series of complex developments, including regulatory changes that should enable mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to put badly needed liquidity into a famished housing sector. There were also indications that funding may be found for ailing bond insurers.
Throughout the week the market has responded in a generally favorable way, allowing the Dow to post gains every day so far. Some investors even are hoping that on Friday the major indexes will manage to end February with gains, which would be a marked contrast to January's bloodletting.
Much will depend on whether hopeful or discouraging signs for the housing and bond insurance crises emerge on the two final trading sessions of the month.
The latest earnings reports underscored current economic challenges. Mortgage company Freddie Mac reported a quarterly loss of $2.45 billion. The result was wider than its year-earlier loss and steeper Wall Street had expected. Freddie Mac forecast further weakness in the housing market.
Sears Holdings Corp. warned early Thursday that profits will be squeezed by declining economic conditions as it posted a 47 percent decline in the final quarter of 2007.
There were losses in overseas trade. In Tokyo the Nikkei closed down 0.75 percent. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 fell 1.19 percent, Paris' CAC 40 lost 1.25 percent and Frankfurt's DAX dropped 1.13 percent |
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29 Feb 08 5:46 pm |
Published February 29, 2008
Property players sweat over lending squeeze
Banks batten down hatches amid global turmoil and as big deals suck liquidity
By KALPANA RASHIWALA AND SIOW LI SEN
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(SINGAPORE) The squeeze is on. Banks have tightened financing for property investment deals, which include big transactions like sales of office blocks and development sites. This, in turn, may keep some buyers from participating in the market, industry players have told BT.
'There are a couple of large deals such as the integrated resorts which have soaked up a fair bit of liquidity.'
- Tan Teck Long,
DBS Bank managing director, corporate and investment banking
It's also taking longer to wrap up property sales deals these days as securing funding becomes more of an issue - and this could be a drag on investment sales.
Bankers cite two main causes for the tightening. The turmoil in the global financial market has led to increased awareness of risks all round, and several mega transactions in the past 12 months here have left less liquidity available for others.
Says Tan Teck Long, DBS Bank managing director, corporate and investment banking: 'There are a couple of large deals such as the integrated resorts (IRs) which have soaked up a fair bit of liquidity.'
Yesterday, Las Vegas Sands Corp announced the completion of its $5.25 billion loan syndication for the Marina Bay Sands IR, the largest deal of its kind here.
Brad Nelson, global head of commercial real estate, Standard Chartered Bank, agrees that the big deals had been sucking liquidity out of the market. 'Banks only have a certain amount of capital base,' he points out.
Banks' exposure to property-related loans is capped by law at 35 per cent of their total loans, to keep risks from the industry in check. This does not include mortgages for owner-occupied properties.
Meanwhile, banks have become more cautious and are giving smaller loans relative to a property's valuation than, say, 12 months ago. This serves to provide them with a greater buffer in the event of a fall in property values given the weaker sentiment in the Singapore property market today.
Jones Lang LaSalle regional director and head of investments Lui Seng Fatt says that about a year ago, banks may have given loans of up to 75 per cent of valuation for income-producing assets like office blocks. Today, the figure may be closer to 60-65 per cent.
Things are even harder for relatively unseasoned, smaller players buying residential development sites. They face greater scrutiny these days before banks give them loans, BT understands.
'Financing for real estate projects has definitely tightened, especially since last quarter. This is essentially because of tighter liquidity brought about by limited appetite in the capital markets, due to current market developments,' says Paul Kwee, Citigroup Singapore corporate bank director and head of real estate.
Lending amounts are more conservative now and covenants tighter, he says.
And despite the decline in Singapore dollar interest rates, the margins that are added to the floating interest rate reference are wider today, observes Mr Kwee. Margins are wider by 50-100 basis points now compared to last year, say bankers. Property sources say that while big established developers can still secure financing for purchases of development sites with relative ease, things are less rosy for smaller players.
Maybank head of business banking Lee Hong Khim acknowledges that his bank hesitates to finance new players whose core business is not in property development.
Mr Lee adds that Maybank is 'more selective in the projects we finance; the location of the project is an important consideration as well'.
Giving his take, Citi's Mr Kwee says: 'Smaller players may find it harder because they have fewer financing options available to them as compared to the big boys who may also be able to tap the convertible bond or Sing-dollar bond market, for instance.'
But Mr Nelson of Stanchart says that 'when liquidity is tight, lenders will normally take the position of supporting their existing relationships . . . regardless of whether they are SME (small and medium enterprise) or wholesale customers'.
Another outcome of banks becoming more cautious in evaluating loan applications is that it's taking longer to complete property investment sales deals, says JLL's Mr Lui.
The investment head of another major property consultancy group feels that the tighter financing environment could change the profile of institutional property buyers. 'We may see greater participation from core funds, which assume lower risk, lower returns, and lower debt, and less participation from opportunity funds, which assume higher risks, higher returns and higher debt.'
Market watchers point to an extreme recent example, when UK-based New Star International Property Fund made a pure-cash (zero debt) acquisition of One Phillip Street, an office block in the Raffles Place area, for $99.02 million.
Funds that need to assume higher leverage to achieve their investment returns may find it difficult to buy property assets in Singapore - and their numbers may dwindle. |
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29 Feb 08 11:23 pm |
| I have build a good relationship with all banks in singapore, every now and then i received call from bank to ask if i need any fund, definitely i need fund my reply to them, but not at the moment, in fact the singapore bank interest rate is very competitive, if you have make the right investment, bank fund is the best instrument tools. |
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01 Mar 08 4:14 am |
Economic Woes Sink Stocks; Dow Down 300Friday February 29, 3:00 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks Fall As Economic Reports, Disappointing Quarterly Reports Stir Concerns About Economy
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell sharply Friday after a series of depressing economic and earnings reports and high oil prices stoked concerns about the health of economy. The major stock indexes fell more than 2 percent, with the Dow Jones industrials at times giving up more than 300 points.
Investors were unnerved by disappointing quarterly results from American International Group Inc. and Dell Inc. And an index of regional business activity that Wall Street regards as a precursor to a broader report registered its weakest reading in more than six years.
Adding to Wall Street's list of worries, oil prices continued to stir concern about inflation after topping $103 per barrel overnight for the first time.
While stocks made sharp gains in the first three days this week even amid lackluster economic readings, the litany of concerns investors succumbed to Friday reflected the undercurrent of uncertainty that has kept Wall Street on edge for months.
"We really had to face a plethora of negative news," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. in Boston.
Hogan said while stocks had managed impressive gains for much of the week, Fridays have been difficult days for Wall Street in the past year or so since cracks began to appear in the credit markets and as concerns have emerged about the economy. Investors worry that unwelcome news might break on the weekends, causing selling pressure in the week's final session.
In midafternoon trading, the Dow fell 274.51, or 2.18 percent, to 12,307.67, after sinking more than 300 points.
Broader stock indicators also tumbled. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 31.31, or 2.29 percent, to 1,336.37, and the Nasdaq composite index declined 48.97, or 2.10 percent, to 2,282.60.
Bond prices rose sharply as stocks lost ground. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.54 percent from 3.67 percent late Thursday.
The dollar showed a slight rebound Friday after hitting a record low against the euro Thursday. The slide in the dollar has sent commodities prices soaring.
Light, sweet crude fell 75 cents to $101.84 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after spiking to $103.05 overnight.
Over all, stocks performed better in February than in January, when credit market turmoil took a heavy toll on the major averages. But disappointing earnings results released late Thursday cast a pall over the market and meant stocks would likely end the month on a wary note.
Insurer AIG announced a $5.29 billion quarterly loss after booking a big charge to account for its exposure to credit derivatives. The loss caught analysts off guard, as many had expected the company to report a profit. AIG was the steepest decliner among the 30 stocks that make up the Dow industrials, falling $3.41, or 6.8 percent, to $46.74.
Computer maker Dell posted a 6 percent decline in its quarterly profit, falling below analysts' expectations, and warned that its business could suffer from reduced customer spending. Dell slid 91 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $19.96.
Bill Shultz, chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates, said AIG's report left investors uneasy about the prospect of further sizable write-downs of bad debt.
"Every time we get to a point where we think we've finished, another report comes out and says we're not done yet," he said.
He expects Wall Street will continue to proceed with "fits and starts" until investors sense that the bad debt from faltering mortgages has been accounted for and that balance sheets are on the mend.
Some relief for the ailing bond insurance industry is on the way, though the news did little to dislodge Wall Street's glum mood Friday. Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross agreed to invest up to $1 billion in Bermuda-based reinsurer Assured Guaranty Ltd. Assured Guaranty rose $2.32, or 10.2 percent, to $25.10.
In economic news, the Chicago purchasing managers index for February came in at 44.5, a weaker reading than the 48.5 that had been expected, according to Dow Jones Newswires. The report indicated the factory sector is shrinking in that region. The figure is seen as a precursor of the national Institute for Supply Management report expected Monday.
The Reuters-University of Michigan final consumer sentiment reading for February came in at 70.8, better than the figure of 69 that had been expected. Still, the index was well off the level of 78.4 seen in January.
A government report showed that personal spending, when stripping out the effects of inflation, stood unchanged in January. The findings offered support to the notion that consumers are more hesitant to reach into their wallets amid the uncertainties facing the economy.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 6 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 953 million shares.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 16.95, or 2.40 percent, to 688.77.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 2.32 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 1.36 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.67 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.67 percent. |
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01 Mar 08 11:34 pm |
everywhere bad news, good time to buy property...  by the way where are all the DIVA followers, miss the boat, MIA for quite while.....why kena BURN in stocks markets....hah.... is all right man, buy more stocks to even out your position.....don't worry.
smart people already withdrawn all their fund from stock market to buy property....cheers for property another year of growth.....in 2008 !! |
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02 Mar 08 11:01 pm |
Followers see down only thinking is end of the world... with theory many many!
Other tempting to look into buying opportunities quietly!!
That is the different between a followers only good in theory... others are good in action!! |
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03 Mar 08 10:40 pm |
| margin call for all follower and miss the boat... top up your account...or sell sell sell !! stocks dropping like falling stars, property still firm... |
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04 Mar 08 10:08 am |
Singapore property market is doomed to fall/decline this year and next year. The main reasons are as follows:
(a) There are still a significant number of speculators (estimated at 30%) still holding to their existing properties with the hope of making quick bucks before TOP. Unfortunately, there will be 30-40 condo developments numbering up to 20,000 units which will go TOP this year or next year. Its real unfortunate that in 2008-2009, the global economy will not improve. There will be over-supply on top of the existing sales that we see on Classified Ads every Saturday...We shall also see pages and pages of auction sales or files for bankruptcies. As such, some desperate speculators will have no choice but sell their properties at the prices which they have bought in 2006/2007 to escape from bank actions. Banks will be more stricter on extending loans and this will make life more difficult for speculators.
(b) Rentals at present moment are still steady but unfortunately getting slower and slower in uptake rates. With more and more units coming on-stream in 2008/2009, tenants will be spoilt for choice. In addition, the bleak economic prospects in US and the global economy might mean a cutdown in factory productions which ultimately will increase unemployment. We will see lesser and lesser tenants in time to come but greater and greater number of landlords willing to bring down rents.
(c) The property price in Singapore cannot be supported by the local population. This is because in 2007, property prices increase by 40% or more, mainly due to the rampant acts of speculators or enbloc sellers in the market and not by genuine homeowners. In contrast, average salary increases just an average of 5-10%. This is not consistent. Corrections are bound to happen anytime soon.
(d) Now, it seems that speculators have gone with the end of deferred payment so as the number of enbloc sellers who probably have already relocated to suburban areas. With these 2 group of buyers gone, the only ones left are the local and foreign buyers. Unfortunately, both groups of buyers are extremely cautious now with the pessimistic economic outlook. These buyers have got burnt from stock investments as well as got stuck with existing properties.
(e) Singapore is in big trouble now. We can see this with the 'aggressive activities by our ministers to tap the Middle East market and investment...hoping to get more investors from these countries to come to Singapore.'. Unfortunately, this is not going to happen anytime soon. The Middle East consumers/investors are more attuned to Muslim markets like Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey and not Singapore. We can witness the thousands of Middle East tourists that come to Malaysia compared to a mere hundreds that come here. And bear in mind that the Middle East millionaires are more proned to dumping their properties when they see no real values in retaining them due to their huge pockets.
(f) Its true that the markets of the future belong to those rich in commodities like Middle East countries and Malaysia which are rich in oil and natural resources. Unfortunately, Singapore does not have any of these qualities. Singapore is in many ways like a miniature US. We depend a lot on the existing local talents as well as investments from overseas. Our economy is export-based with the US being our biggest customer. We will be the worst-hit when the credit crisis reach our homeland anytime soon unlike the Middle East countries which have high-priced oil to back them up. Even Middle East will be affected soon when their oil price drops when demand goes down with the recession in the long term. No one is immuned to the US economy.
(g) Property transactions in Singapore is probably the lowest in a decade in February this year. I hardly see any transactions going on in some areas of Singapore. This is a very bad sign. When there are no buyers but many sellers...and many many more sellers by the end of 2008...and economy gets worst in end-2008, and we will see even fewer buyers..unless there is a major price correction, many sellers will get burnt and lose everything including their 20% deposit to buy the property. Banks will lower their property valuations when economy gets bad and sellers will be hard pressed to compete for buyers' money.
(h) Even the IR, F1 Grand Prix, Youth Olympics etc will not do much to hype up the property market at a time of economic downturn. This is because F1 Grandprix is only held less than a week in a year so as the Youth Olympics. IR/Casinos are found not only in Singapore but also in Malaysia, Korea and US. When times are bad, no one will be gambling away their money at the casinos. In year 1996, Singapore property market experienced its most robust year, even better than 2007, where buyers pay people to queue up for units. At that time, our government even plans to have a bullet train to link to Malaysia, and are talking up plans to expand the Marina Bay area with their huge land reclaimation efforts. Government also has great plans for Tanjong Rhu area with a Marina and Marine Village planned. But the 1997 currency crisis came and every plans that we had go down buried in the grounds for 7 or more years....What makes you think that this wont happen again this year round ???
(i) Have you ever considered why Government corporations like Temasek and GIC are heavily investing in US/European banks to keep them afloat from the sub-prime crisis ?? It is because Singapore has so much stake to lose if these crisis goes uncontrolled....from the pattern, it seems that the damage is already done and cannot be undone despite the massive injections of funds from GICs and Sovereign Funds. The US economy is in debt to the tune of US$3 trillion or more....How to rectify these problems ???
And so, my friends, if you still think that the already overpriced property prices in Singapore will go up further, you are indeed dreaming. Wake up to reality |
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Astute Buyer
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04 Mar 08 10:37 am |
| Well thought and nicely written |
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04 Mar 08 1:02 pm |
| Finally I can see a long script which is not "cut & paste" thing... But I still strongly believe that property market here still sustainable!! |
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04 Mar 08 2:44 pm |
wow clap clap hand!!!!
someone here can really write good story
must be better the our minister here!!
can even have better predication then them
Why not leave your big name here..
so that when the next election come
we will vote for you to be the next gahman!!!
dont talk -censored- lar!!!!!
if you are really damm good as your lovely story,
you should be multi billionaire and well know
all else publish a book!!!
hahahh |
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04 Mar 08 3:22 pm |
| Anonymous wrote: | Singapore property market is doomed to fall/decline this year and next year. The main reasons are as follows:
(a) There are still a significant number of speculators (estimated at 30%) still holding to their existing properties with the hope of making quick bucks before TOP. Unfortunately, there will be 30-40 condo developments numbering up to 20,000 units which will go TOP this year or next year. Its real unfortunate that in 2008-2009, the global economy will not improve. There will be over-supply on top of the existing sales that we see on Classified Ads every Saturday...We shall also see pages and pages of auction sales or files for bankruptcies. As such, some desperate speculators will have no choice but sell their properties at the prices which they have bought in 2006/2007 to escape from bank actions. Banks will be more stricter on extending loans and this will make life more difficult for speculators.
(b) Rentals at present moment are still steady but unfortunately getting slower and slower in uptake rates. With more and more units coming on-stream in 2008/2009, tenants will be spoilt for choice. In addition, the bleak economic prospects in US and the global economy might mean a cutdown in factory productions which ultimately will increase unemployment. We will see lesser and lesser tenants in time to come but greater and greater number of landlords willing to bring down rents.
(c) The property price in Singapore cannot be supported by the local population. This is because in 2007, property prices increase by 40% or more, mainly due to the rampant acts of speculators or enbloc sellers in the market and not by genuine homeowners. In contrast, average salary increases just an average of 5-10%. This is not consistent. Corrections are bound to happen anytime soon.
(d) Now, it seems that speculators have gone with the end of deferred payment so as the number of enbloc sellers who probably have already relocated to suburban areas. With these 2 group of buyers gone, the only ones left are the local and foreign buyers. Unfortunately, both groups of buyers are extremely cautious now with the pessimistic economic outlook. These buyers have got burnt from stock investments as well as got stuck with existing properties.
(e) Singapore is in big trouble now. We can see this with the 'aggressive activities by our ministers to tap the Middle East market and investment...hoping to get more investors from these countries to come to Singapore.'. Unfortunately, this is not going to happen anytime soon. The Middle East consumers/investors are more attuned to Muslim markets like Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey and not Singapore. We can witness the thousands of Middle East tourists that come to Malaysia compared to a mere hundreds that come here. And bear in mind that the Middle East millionaires are more proned to dumping their properties when they see no real values in retaining them due to their huge pockets.
(f) Its true that the markets of the future belong to those rich in commodities like Middle East countries and Malaysia which are rich in oil and natural resources. Unfortunately, Singapore does not have any of these qualities. Singapore is in many ways like a miniature US. We depend a lot on the existing local talents as well as investments from overseas. Our economy is export-based with the US being our biggest customer. We will be the worst-hit when the credit crisis reach our homeland anytime soon unlike the Middle East countries which have high-priced oil to back them up. Even Middle East will be affected soon when their oil price drops when demand goes down with the recession in the long term. No one is immuned to the US economy.
(g) Property transactions in Singapore is probably the lowest in a decade in February this year. I hardly see any transactions going on in some areas of Singapore. This is a very bad sign. When there are no buyers but many sellers...and many many more sellers by the end of 2008...and economy gets worst in end-2008, and we will see even fewer buyers..unless there is a major price correction, many sellers will get burnt and lose everything including their 20% deposit to buy the property. Banks will lower their property valuations when economy gets bad and sellers will be hard pressed to compete for buyers' money.
(h) Even the IR, F1 Grand Prix, Youth Olympics etc will not do much to hype up the property market at a time of economic downturn. This is because F1 Grandprix is only held less than a week in a year so as the Youth Olympics. IR/Casinos are found not only in Singapore but also in Malaysia, Korea and US. When times are bad, no one will be gambling away their money at the casinos. In year 1996, Singapore property market experienced its most robust year, even better than 2007, where buyers pay people to queue up for units. At that time, our government even plans to have a bullet train to link to Malaysia, and are talking up plans to expand the Marina Bay area with their huge land reclaimation efforts. Government also has great plans for Tanjong Rhu area with a Marina and Marine Village planned. But the 1997 currency crisis came and every plans that we had go down buried in the grounds for 7 or more years....What makes you think that this wont happen again this year round ???
(i) Have you ever considered why Government corporations like Temasek and GIC are heavily investing in US/European banks to keep them afloat from the sub-prime crisis ?? It is because Singapore has so much stake to lose if these crisis goes uncontrolled....from the pattern, it seems that the damage is already done and cannot be undone despite the massive injections of funds from GICs and Sovereign Funds. The US economy is in debt to the tune of US$3 trillion or more....How to rectify these problems ???
And so, my friends, if you still think that the already overpriced property prices in Singapore will go up further, you are indeed dreaming. Wake up to reality |
An eye -opener....good analysis... |
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