Reports suggest economy weakening more
By EILEEN ALT POWELL, AP Business Writer
1 hour, 13 minutes ago
NEW YORK - A rise in jobless claims and a drop in a key forecasting gauge provided the latest evidence that the U.S. economy is faltering and may be slipping into recession.
The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators fell in February for the fifth consecutive month. The index, which is designed to forecast where the nation's economy is headed in the next three to six months, dipped 0.3 percent to 135.0 in February after slumping 0.4 percent the month before.
In Washington, meanwhile, the Labor Department said that applications for unemployment benefits totaled 378,000 last week. That was an increase of 22,000 from the previous week and the highest level in nearly two months.
The four-week average for new claims rose to 365,250, which was the highest level since a flood of claims caused by the 2005 Gulf Coast hurricanes.
Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement accompanying the leading indicators report that economic signals "are flashing yellow."
He said the numbers indicate "the economy may be grinding to a halt" and that "a small contraction in economic activity cannot be ruled out."
A Federal Reserve reading of business activity in the Philadelphia area showed contraction — but not as much as analysts expected. The news helped the stock market on Thursday recover from a drop the day before.
In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 158.02, or 1.3 percent, to 12,257.68. Other indexes also were up.
The economy has been hard hit by rising gas prices, falling home prices and tightening credit markets, which have forced consumers and businesses to cut spending. As a result, the U.S. economy may have stopped growing in the current quarter and could continue faltering in the second quarter. That would meet a technical definition of a recession — two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Pessimism about short-term U.S. economic prospects was voiced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which on Thursday downgraded its growth forecasts for the United States, the euro zone and Japan
The OECD, a Paris-based institution that supports global development, cut its forecast for first-quarter gross domestic product in the United States to 0.1 percent and predicted that GDP would be flat in the second quarter.
Like the OECD, most experts expect any downturn to be relatively mild and probably short-lived. That's because the Federal Reserve in recent months has aggressively lowered interest rates and made more funds available to banks and brokerages. And the Bush administration has been moving on several fronts to boost the economy, including the promise of tax rebates starting in the summer.
Scott Brown, chief economist with Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Fla., predicts that U.S. economic growth could be "close to zero, maybe negative" in the first half of the year but likely improve in the second half.
"It will take some time before the Fed rate cuts since January have an effect on the economy," Brown said. And the rebates and other fiscal stimulus are likely to kick in to boost spending this summer, he added.
The economic weakness already is showing up in higher layoffs and weaker hiring numbers.
The Labor Department's report said the total number of payroll jobs fell by 63,000 in February, an even bigger decline that the drop of 22,000 jobs in January, which had been the first monthly decline since mid-2003.
"We have no doubt that the trend in claims is upwards and is approaching the levels seen in the earlier stage of the recession in 2001," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
The reading for the Conference Board's index of leading indicators was in line with the 0.3 percent decline expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/IFR.
The Conference Board said the leading index has declined 1.5 percent since August, with eight of its 10 components showing declines.
In the latest month, the biggest negative influences were unemployment insurance claims, building permits, vendor performance and consumer expectations.
The coincident index, which measures current activity, was unchanged for a third consecutive month at 124.9. The lagging index was up 0.2 percent in February after rising 0.1 percent in January.
mount sohpia suite selling an average of $1700psf, good news for mount emily area, newly TOP Parc Emily is having great potential up side.... seller of parc emily remember not to sell your unit cheap.... dun't ever listen to those agents saying your unit only worth $1100 to $1200.... there are buyer out there searching and wanted to buy cheap.... anyone
even selling your unit at $1300, means a 2 year future value of $1150 !!! base on the calculation of 2 years rental yield and mount sophia suite will take 2 years to build...
Singapore property downturn has overlong lasting from 1997 until 2007 then pick up in about 30%. for those people who are interested in long term investment in property, better buy now since the market has slow down a bit before it is too late.. don't expect for fall 20% from the current level, that is history.... for district 9 Dhoby Ghaut MRT, river valley area.
all future near MRT condo are selling $1000 up (minimum) so dun't expect district 9 to come any closer to this range....
with the economy slowing down, investment in share market has taken a bitten, US interest rate cut of 0.75 percent to 3.5%....smart people will transfer their money investment to a save heaven which is property sector in singapore which has not been raisen so much as compare to those asian countries...about 30% for 2007....
singapore has attracted new investment and created another 8000 new jobs in the last quarter of 2007. more foreign are expected to come into singapore. Even more jobs creation when the casino start to operate, more foreigner will come into singapore....singapore infractstucture have improved since 1997 and the proper market has slowed down for about 10 years, year 2007 is the first year proper market pick up, it will not die down so soon..... mininum expect to grow for at least 5 - 10 years. as long as economy grow, property price will increase accordingly. Even with a higher inflation rate, property price will grow faster that means (economy + inflation) rate together....
I am a long term investor in parc emily since it launch in 2005.... can fetech high rental return value, at $1400 level near Dhoby Ghaut MRT. Do you know that wakie edge 100+ apartment is not for sale, developer are not selling those units for no reason, SMU and Casino is nearby mount sohpia emily with walking distance to MRT, new launching at nearby area between $1600 to $1773 psf for CDL and another new Sophia road development.
latest 600 sft selling $1 million new launch
wah, very tempted to sell to take profit but i think i will hold for longer term.....
future price appreciation in the mount emily and sophia area is tremendous.....watch out
$1400 rental for a condo??? hahahaa..... my 5 room flat at TPY can fetch a better price...
New bankrupts tend to be younger
Credit card delinquency the reason
DESPITE full employment
and robust economic growth,
the number of people facing
financial ruin has begun to rise.
After falling from a high in
2004, the number of bankruptcy petitions
and orders has begun to flatten
and the delinquency rate for
credit card holders has started to go
up.
Lawyers and those involved in
bankruptcy counselling say new
bankrupts tend to be younger – between
21 and 44 years old – and
men make up almost 70 per cent.
Also showing up are parents who
acted as guarantors for their children,
The Business Times reported
yesterday.
While the upward trend is far
from alarming as it springs from a
very low base, the situation could
turn bleaker if the economy slows
down and some people lose their
jobs.
“As far as I am aware, 99.9 per
cent of the people made bankrupt
are holding jobs; they complain
that their salary is too low to pay
(the debt),” said Advent Law director
Aaron Chan.
The economy expanded 7.5 per
cent last year and the unemployment
rate was 2.1 per cent – a
10-year low. The National Trades
Union Congress said retrenchments
hit a 14-year-low, while unionised
firms paid out the fattest bonuses
in 18 years. Yet people seem
to be living beyond their means.
Mr Chan said the weekly list
which comes out for bankruptcy
hearings includes professionals
such as lawyers and doctors, but
these professionals usually pay up
at this stage as they would not be allowed
to practise if they were made
bankrupt.
Creditors can petition for a person
to be made bankrupt once the
debt exceeds $10,000.
Mr Leong Sze Hian, president of
the Society of Financial Service Professionals,
volunteers at the Official
Assignee’s office. He said the
number of bankrupts could be even
higher as creditors are holding
back.
In January, there were 292 petitions
for bankruptcy and 215 bankruptcy
orders were passed. In 2007,
the average monthly bankruptcy petitions
stood at 268 and the orders
at 230, according to the Insolvency
and Public Trustee’s Office.
Credit Bureau (Singapore) data
shows that the number of delinquent
credit card holders began rising
steadily from last July. In December,
there were 14,379 delinquent
card holders representing a
delinquency rate of 1.42 per cent
against 11,346 or 1.16 per cent in July.
Some 80 per cent have credit
cards with at least two banks. In
most cases, the delinquent owes
less than $5000
Latest batch of projects promise sunrise era, queen bee buzz
By RONNIE LIM
(SINGAPORE) Despite current global economic jitters, investment inflows here remain strong.
In the first few months of 2008, Singapore has already attracted more than S$3 billion of manufacturing investments.
More importantly, many of the investments represent a new wave of activities which will help the manufacturing sector here weather industry downcycles, keep ahead of the competition and stay relevant amidst rapid global technological advances.
This is one top of the "record S$16.1 billion (US$11.2 billion) in manufacturing commitments from investors in 2007, almost double that of the previous year, the government said on Monday." (ChannelNewsAsia 21 January 2008).
The S$3 billion investments so far this year was committed between 1 Jan 2008 and 5 Mar 2008 (just 2.17 months) if we extrapolate that to a full year, that's going to be another record $16.5 billion.
Last time Singapore used to target about $8 billion to $9 billion per year of investments. Now it is getting twice that amount.
Also note that these investments are new types of investments like "Aerospace Composites", "Solar Research" that requires expertise not necessarily available in Singapore.
This means more foreign talents to come here to rent properties.
Some may settle down, like this German guy below who appeared in Sunday Times (23 Mar 2008).
One thing about Singapore I wish I'd known before I came here...
'I wish someone had told me that Singapore is like home, a truly cosmopolitan city. I would have come here sooner.'
The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.
How can this be?
Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):
You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.
Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.
I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.
Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.
The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.
How can this be?
Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):
You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.
Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.
I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.
Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.
All diva king follower and BIG TIME MISS the boat are trying very hard to find a plunge stories, this time even use history and stock....too bad let me tell you straight, singapore private property will not plunge 20%, it will keep steadily for this volilate period and even rise 5 - 10% by end of year...
simple logic, alot of buyers are still in the sideline waiting to pick up cheap bargain, WAIT long LONG. newly TOP apartment in 2008 is only 6000 over units. demand is outpacing the supply, even projected TOP apartment in 2009 is more than double to 12,000, still under demand.... so those newly TOP apartment, no hurry to sell unless at right price....buyers will start to panic if you decided to rent out for 2 years, that means they have to wait for another 2 more years....is alright i know they can WAIT....so rent out first double gain in rental and price appreciation........
All diva king follower and BIG TIME MISS the boat are trying very hard to find a plunge stories, this time even use history and stock....too bad let me tell you straight, singapore private property will not plunge 20%, it will keep steadily for this volilate period and even rise 5 - 10% by end of year...
simple logic, alot of buyers are still in the sideline waiting to pick up cheap bargain, WAIT long LONG. newly TOP apartment in 2008 is only 6000 over units. demand is outpacing the supply, even projected TOP apartment in 2009 is more than double to 12,000, still under demand.... so those newly TOP apartment, no hurry to sell unless at right price....buyers will start to panic if you decided to rent out for 2 years, that means they have to wait for another 2 more years....is alright i know they can WAIT....so rent out first double gain in rental and price appreciation........
watch out what i say.....
correct....the time to buy, ppl don't buy, ppl like to chase run away price later
The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.
How can this be?
Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):
You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.
Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.
I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.
Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.
Followers no nothing about stock .. still use "cut & paste" method & follow ppl backside & talk according hah!
Let me tell you .. if you want to base on stock to talk about property.
Even now at 28XX level, is still higher than the history 3 peak in 1994, 1996 & 2000. Therefor property price now shouldn't be lower than the peak in 1996, right?
So as long as STI is sustainable above 2800+/- level, you can forget about what crash in properties lah!! In fact, I would say STI in no time will be trying for the 3500 & further to 3900 level again!! Then you use your head to crash against the wall also too late liao!!
The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.
How can this be?
Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):
You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.
Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.
I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.
Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.
Followers no nothing about stock .. still use "cut & paste" method & follow ppl backside & talk according hah!
Let me tell you .. if you want to base on stock to talk about property.
Even now at 28XX level, is still higher than the history 3 peak in 1994, 1996 & 2000. Therefor property price now shouldn't be lower than the peak in 1996, right?
So as long as STI is sustainable above 2800+/- level, you can forget about what crash in properties lah!! In fact, I would say STI in no time will be trying for the 3500 & further to 3900 level again!! Then you use your head to crash against the wall also too late liao!!
Followers like you... kena hamtam jialet jialet... will quickly divert attention & tok kok... or quickly flip for bad news & come back do "cut & paste" lah
Followers like you... kena hamtam jialet jialet... will quickly divert attention & tok kok... or quickly flip for bad news & come back do "cut & paste" lah
Yeah.. that's followers styles lah.. at least uncle go MIA.. this followers damn thick skin man.. kena hamtam jialet jialet still act blur like nothing happen!!
Followers like you... kena hamtam jialet jialet... will quickly divert attention & tok kok... or quickly flip for bad news & come back do "cut & paste" lah
Yeah.. that's followers styles lah.. at least uncle go MIA.. this followers damn thick skin man.. kena hamtam jialet jialet still act blur like nothing happen!!