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Guest
on 12 Feb 08 1:14 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Property Market really bad, almost Zero transanction in Jan 08......This month might be worse.....I guess those with vested interest will have a lot of free time to talk up the market....Good luck |
Zero transaction doesn't reflect property market is bad... now the case is.. Buyers not willing to buy if can't find a good buy, yet Sellers also not willing to sell if offer price is no good!
Just like last Dec 07 transaction was low.. but still can see many transacted price are sustainable, some even transacted higher than the previous months. However the overall result for the last quarter up 6.8%.
So the best still base on transacted price over certain period of time to see the actual trend of the market. No point just base on one month & telling the whole world the market is up or down, that only the most naive or inexpenience person will do so! |
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Guest
on 12 Feb 08 3:17 pm
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The sharp rise in the property mkt during the last 12 months was partly fuel by the enbloc sales, speculators and of course there are the geniune buyers who are worried abt missing the boat.
It is beyond doubt that the DPS plays a impt role in the developer's sales as buyers only need to pay up 3 yrs later. With this remove, it is just like stocks, when the brokers removes the T+4, just like the recent UniAsia, the buyers will have to pay upfront when buying, the prices will fall, if not collapse.
When the developers offer DPS, they are indeed paying for the interest incurred and hence build the cost into the prices. At 4% per yr, for 3 years, the interest playable by the developer would come up to 12%.
Without DPS, the developers, with the saving of some 12%, can afford to give a discount of that amt . It would be very logical to see Prices of the new development without DPS dropped by at least 10%, if not 15%.
The developers business is to buy land, build them and sell at a Profit. Buy low sell high, buy high sell higher.. they do not mind buying land at high prices IF they can sell their properties at higher prices.. as long as they can make money.
Now, with the removal of DFS, the govt is sending out a Strong signal that they are serious abt stabilising the property mkt. Minister has mentioned that there may be more measures to come. Capital gain tax, reduction of the loan quantum to 70%, extra stamp duty if sold within the few 1-2 years, etc..
Now, being a developer, one would be worry abt the Future demand and hence more willingly to lower their prices to dispose of the remaining units. Visit a showroom this weekend and next, you will believe it. When the developers start cutting their prices, it will more or less bring down the avrage px of the property.
Next, the resale mkt will be affected with the lowering of prices by the developers. Lets say, developer A cut their prices by 10%, it would be logically to presume that the resale properties at the nearby developement will also fall by 10% if not more, otherwise buyers would buy directly from developers who may throw in more freebie.
Currently, there are many speculators who are caught with many units, waiting to unload. When they see the developers reducing their prices, they will start to panic and unload theirs. One thing for sure, until these speculators or Spec-vestors clear their holdings, they will Not commit more units. Some of my speculators friends have voice concren and will be sellling their units, even at breakeven prices. These were the 'Wholesales" buyers for the developers, they come in and grab 5-10 units without a blink. with these group of "Wholesalers" gone, the developers may find sales dropped as they are dealing more with "retail" customer who come in and buy 1 unit at a time.
When the sales at the new development is slow, the confidence will drop, buyers who are worry abt missing the boat will now hold and wait. When the developrs cant sell their units as fast they have done so in the last 2 years, they will consider abt their Bidding of land or enbloc properties. They will now bid at lower prices than before and may stay out completely until they sold out their current stock.
Without the high prices offered by the keen developers, the enbloc craz will die down. some enbloc may have to reduce their expectation in order to secure a buyer. The hugh capital gain reaped by the enbloc will be reduced, hence the enblocer will not be willing to pay high price for their replacment property.
There will be a Domino Fall just like the spiral up in the last 24 months. Now, it is just the beginning of the Domino Fall...
Worst is that more supplies are coming out in the next 24 months and the promise by the govt to introduce more measures if required to curb the sharp rise in property prices.
I foresee a correction of 20% from here. |
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Guest
on 12 Feb 08 3:45 pm
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| Hey, thanks for the valuable insights. What you said are really credible. My bro and sis-in-law went to several showflats last weekend and they were relatively quiet. The agents at the showflats were practically desperate to close the sales deal by enticing my bro to a 10% discount-- their so-called Early Bird Special. It's funny that they call it EARLY Bird Special when some of the showflats had been opened to the public for nearly a month! In fact, a few days ago, I even had an agent whom I had only came across a couple of times online in 2005 (but never met in person) suddenly emailed me, asking if I am keen to go down and view the Cosmos at Mountbatten (showflat). When I told him that I may be back in Singapore only in March, he said it is not a problem as they are still some units available there! Hmmmm....market does sound quiet, eh?! |
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Guest
on 12 Feb 08 10:02 pm
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| thanks for these info...over the past months i have been constantly harrassed by my land lady to increase my rental n now really should be looking at buying my own at a reasonable price. |
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Guest
on 12 Feb 08 10:49 pm
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Business Times: Published February 12, 2008
Developer stocks may rise above flat property prices
Goldman says that physical market correction already priced in
(SINGAPORE) Goldman Sachs predicts that private home prices will remain flat this year, but is sticking to its view that Singapore's strong structural story is driving a sustainable multi-year residential upswing.
The US bank does not expect a repeat of the mid-1996 (anti-speculation) regulatory measures that caused Singapore's residential market downturn or an economic environment like in 1998, when property prices fell sharply amid negative economic growth and job creation, and an interest rate spike. Goldman Sachs has also upgraded CapitaLand from Neutral to Buy.
'We argue that the share prices of developer stocks have priced in a severe physical market correction, which we believe is unwarranted.
'Notwithstanding near- term headwinds, we recommend investors start accumulating Singapore property developer stocks. We believe developer stocks will start trending up to their RNAVs (Revalued Net Asset Values) once investors get comfortable that property markets in Singapore and China are not heading for a severe correction,' Goldman Sachs said in a report dated Feb 8 and authored by its analyst Leslie Yee.
Even after lowering its RNAVs for Singapore developers, Goldman's 12-month target prices (set at parity to 2008 Estimated RNAV) offer potential upside of around 28-37 per cent.
Goldman Sachs attributed its lowering of 12-month target prices and valuations to Singapore private home prices staying flat, lower values of listed investments and a lower multiple of 15x (from 20x) for asset management fees.
Although Goldman Sachs assumes zero growth in overall private home prices this year, it acknowledges that prices may increase in the second half of the year.
The property market is currently caught between the negatives of macro concerns over the fallout from a US-led recession on the Singapore economy and equity market weakness, and the positives of strong Singapore domestic growth drivers such as robust job creation and wage growth, Goldman's report said.
'We have greatest confidence in the private mid- to mass-market segment, based on our analysis of different key drivers, such as affordability, income growth, population growth, and HDB resale market trends, among others. We believe strong Singapore fundamentals support this segment, which is likely to benefit most from any reduction in mortgage rates.
'In the prime residential segment, we see a dampener from a fall in speculative activity but would not underestimate the appetite of bulk buyers such as the Middle Eastern funds. We note affordability for the mass market remains strong, while the prime segment should benefit from the rise in the number of people with high incomes,' it added. Besides the Singapore residential market, other key drivers for developer stocks are the performance of the Singapore office market, the Chinese residential and commercial markets, and real estate investment trusts, the US bank said.
It argues that new office supply here in 2011/2012 can be absorbed without significant negative impact on rental and occupancy rates, and expects capitalisation rates across various property asset classes in Singapore to remain stable.
Goldman Sachs also sees little downside for residential prices in the China market, and has a positive bias on the outlook for Beijing, Shanghai and selected second-tier cities.
As for Singapore Reits, Goldman sees their unit prices rising from current levels over the next six months - given firm property rentals and the possibility of the overhang from primary and secondary equity raisings being removed.
Goldman has lowered its 2008 estimated RNAV for City Developments from $15.80 to $14.70 and for CapitaLand from $8.30 to $7.70.
'Amidst a more uncertain environment, our top pick is CapitaLand, which we upgrade to Buy from Neutral. With its multiple growth engines, highly regarded management team and low gearing, our Buy rating on CapitaLand is premised on its attractive and resilient valuation which performs well in various stress tests,' Goldman said.
The US bank is maintaining its neutral rating for CityDev. |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 2:21 am
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I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts.... as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% , what a joke..... property price will still increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion, watchout what i say
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... follower alway not one step behind but many steps behind ....... |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 10:04 am
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SINGAPORE) Goldman Sachs predicts that private home prices will remain flat this year.
As mentioned above the home prices will remain flat this year, it wise to hold on and let's the correction in home prices unfold itself.
They will be more upcoming bargain in the near future, with all speculators purged out from the market. Prices will reflect the true sentiment of the market. |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 12:35 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts.... as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% , what a joke..... property price will still increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion, watchout what i say
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... follower alway not one step behind but many steps behind ....... |
Harlow! why u damn angry liao when people dont want to buy now?? u no get commission is it???  or you cant off load your property desperately??? no matter what u or others say , a simple fact remains, liao -- if price too expensive and salary still remains the same/slow to rise, buyers cannot afford it loh...so even if u bark and bark and bark like mad dog, if buyer dont want to buy means buyer dont want to buy, hor! so stop barking at the wrong tree, leh! |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 2:07 pm
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| Are you replying to the right comment from the other party? Your reply is totally irrelevant to what his said leh!! |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 2:13 pm
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| I think he SIAO liao leh!! Everyone he also thinks that they are brokers! I think he kena raped by brokers before! Hate brokers so much... |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 2:14 pm
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hahahahah
why bear hatred so much
not good for health
we must love one another lar |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 2:27 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | I think he SIAO liao leh!! Everyone he also thinks that they are brokers! I think he kena raped by brokers before! Hate brokers so much... |
Wah lao eh, someone getting more creative, leh! Is that how far your IQ can go, leh??? why u pek cek when buyers are being cautious, arh? U no get commission or u cant offload yr properties, arh??? You bark, bark, bark like mad dog oso no use, liao!!! Yr buddy say dont bear haterd and must love each other..so u can start first by not lying about the true mkt conditions, hor? then buyers will start loving you, liao!!! |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 8:15 pm
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| Me not agent! Me is investor! Why nowadays Missed the Boat Expert so happy... is it because you just found your dream home at your dream price already?? |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 11:46 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts.... as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% , what a joke..... property price will still increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion, watchout what i say
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... follower alway not one step behind but many steps behind ....... |
Harlow! why u damn angry liao when people dont want to buy now?? u no get commission is it??? or you cant off load your property desperately??? no matter what u or others say , a simple fact remains, liao -- if price too expensive and salary still remains the same/slow to rise, buyers cannot afford it loh...so even if u bark and bark and bark like mad dog, if buyer dont want to buy means buyer dont want to buy, hor! so stop barking at the wrong tree, leh! |
this is my general view, projection and analsysis of property market, explaining how i predict the market.. i am not an agent....an long term investor....i understand that buyers are in the sideline, i am not convienting them to buy property bcos i know those ppl in the sideline will forever in the sideline... so no need to talk to them....let me tell u, the current sentiment is the same as 2005, ppl are unclear about the direction, when i brought in 2005, i still can bargain with dev... this is what happened now....... remember in 2005 i know one friend whose parent apartment amber view got enbloc, i told him to buy in to district 9 property. it is going to increase.... you know what is his reply ? where got increase, having a wait an see attitude..... he has missed the biggest boat.... until now he is still waiting....
property is like share market, when the share go higher and higher then ppl start to chase..... |
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Guest
on 13 Feb 08 11:56 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts.... as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% , what a joke..... property price will still increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion, watchout what i say
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... follower alway not one step behind but many steps behind ....... |
Harlow! why u damn angry liao when people dont want to buy now?? u no get commission is it??? or you cant off load your property desperately??? no matter what u or others say , a simple fact remains, liao -- if price too expensive and salary still remains the same/slow to rise, buyers cannot afford it loh...so even if u bark and bark and bark like mad dog, if buyer dont want to buy means buyer dont want to buy, hor! so stop barking at the wrong tree, leh! |
this is my general view, projection and analsysis of property market, explaining how i predict the market.. i am not an agent....an long term investor....i understand that buyers are in the sideline, i am not convienting them to buy property bcos i know those ppl in the sideline will forever in the sideline... so no need to talk to them....let me tell u, the current sentiment is the same as 2005, ppl are unclear about the direction, when i brought in 2005, i still can bargain with dev... this is what happened now....... remember in 2005 i know one friend whose parent apartment amber view got enbloc, i told him to buy in to district 9 property. it is going to increase.... you know what is his reply ? where got increase, having a wait an see attitude..... he has missed the biggest boat.... until now he is still waiting....
property is like share market, when the share go higher and higher then ppl start to chase..... |
even a mad dog like you screeming your salary is not increasing so much....or your salary stop increase ..... property price will still increase like mad dog.....only mad dog will start barking "pls property price dunt increase, crash, crash...market down 20%%. bcos your salary never increase so much leh'....anyone know any mad dog house in singapore ?? |
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Guest
on 14 Feb 08 3:37 am
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| aiyoh, me where got salary cuz me where got work, wan! i shake leg everyday and play stocks n shares, liao! but when stock mkt is bad and px keep going down, hor, i dont lie to my friends/contacts to ask them to buy just becos i need kiasu people to help push up the stock px from falling futher, liao! so unlike some people, i dont bark like mad dog, hor! |
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Guest
on 14 Feb 08 4:08 pm
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | I am happy to say that the US subprime issue has created an non-bubble property growth in the singapore property market...if the US subprime will to happen in three years time, then it will be very scary to see singapore property market crash with alot of ppl ending loosing their home ending in high debts.... as what i say before, i am very confidence that the singapore property market is not in the bubble phase, singapore property market is not somewhere seeing any bubble in the near future. We are in the begining of the property growth stage with many more years of healthy growth to come....as a long term investors, this is what i want to see....
US property is taking about more than 20% property price correction, those diva, uncle and follower are also talking the same that singapore is also going to fall 20% , what a joke..... property price will still increase in 2008 and 2009 in reasonable fashion, watchout what i say
low transactional activities don't mean that the price will falll.... follower alway not one step behind but many steps behind ....... |
Harlow! why u damn angry liao when people dont want to buy now?? u no get commission is it??? or you cant off load your property desperately??? no matter what u or others say , a simple fact remains, liao -- if price too expensive and salary still remains the same/slow to rise, buyers cannot afford it loh...so even if u bark and bark and bark like mad dog, if buyer dont want to buy means buyer dont want to buy, hor! so stop barking at the wrong tree, leh! |
this is my general view, projection and analsysis of property market, explaining how i predict the market.. i am not an agent....an long term investor....i understand that buyers are in the sideline, i am not convienting them to buy property bcos i know those ppl in the sideline will forever in the sideline... so no need to talk to them....let me tell u, the current sentiment is the same as 2005, ppl are unclear about the direction, when i brought in 2005, i still can bargain with dev... this is what happened now....... remember in 2005 i know one friend whose parent apartment amber view got enbloc, i told him to buy in to district 9 property. it is going to increase.... you know what is his reply ? where got increase, having a wait an see attitude..... he has missed the biggest boat.... until now he is still waiting....
property is like share market, when the share go higher and higher then ppl start to chase..... |
even a mad dog like you screeming your salary is not increasing so much....or your salary stop increase ..... property price will still increase like mad dog.....only mad dog will start barking "pls property price dunt increase, crash, crash...market down 20%%. bcos your salary never increase so much leh'....anyone know any mad dog house in singapore ?? |
Sure we know Missed the Boat Expert like you who cannot tahan will again start talking craps.. & for sure we also knew that even you put many "smile face" all round also can't hide your feeling of how eager you are, waiting for you turn to come, but in fact we know you getting "HOT" & fed up of waiting from all kind of comment you making.
Many followers also like you long time been talking about "crash", "plunge", "down", etc some even can predict -40% or -30% & now you say -20%... till their uncle go MIA liao!
But since you always mentioning about mad dog... really makes me think who is the mad dog actually... but before you reply to me, pls do not use bark one ok!! Cool off a bit ok! |
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Guest
on 14 Feb 08 4:25 pm
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| Wah, my crystal ball today says desperate sellers and agents bad mood, liao ,,,,why, eh??? |
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Guest
on 14 Feb 08 4:38 pm
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You don't have to search far, in this Forum itself you can find....
Real life examples
D. 14. FH, Casa Sarina at less than S$650psf! Near MRT
The Centris, Near MRT. $480 psf
FIRE SALE!! Varsity Park $638psf ONLY!!
The $$$ psf is dropping, seller and buyer are more level headed now. More and more bargain will be out there......
Just FYI Varsity Park latest transaction at $ 630 psf for area 1991 sqf |
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Guest
on 14 Feb 08 4:43 pm
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every now and then, i got buyers and agent calling on behalf of buyers offer unreasonable low price for my district 9 property, even at the price the buyer offer i still can make profit....but i am telling off the buyers to wait long long......go and take the singapore flyer, when u are up at the sky then u can see far...... when u are on the ground....see the well very big.....
There is a gap between buyer and seller offer....sellers will not let go at lower than market rate price unless desperate...so ppl who notice and cheap bargain, do post up here... as i am considering.... |
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